Rogue trader (Reflection)

This is honestly one of the most insane true story to date that happened in Singapore back in 1990s.

Basically, Nick was a futures trader. Initially, he lost a tiny sum but was able to recover through gambling on futures. So, this prolly enhanced his self-confidence and made him into a true degen.

Took another big bet again but was unable to recover. Repeated over and over again just to cover the initial mistake. Losses kept piling up and eventually amounted to 1 billion in trading losses. Many have lost their life savings because of 1 man..

Barings bank became insolvent and went bankrupt solely due to this incident. This story really drives home the importance of risk management. If you dont manage your downside, the market will manage it for you.

That’s the thing about trading, many glorify it to be a beautiful art where you can eventually achieve financial freedom and everyone gets to be happy. But truth to be told, every single dollar that you gain came from someone else. It could be their life savings or their child’s education funds.

So, is it really something to be proud of? To put it bluntly, sounds like glorified stealing to me. But, it is what it is, natural selection at its best. I believe that there are still whales out there manipulating the market like Nick. As a retail investor, you’re already at a disadvantage given the knowledge disparity. So, the least you can do to protect yourself is to arm yourself with knowledge. Only then will you be able to discern if this is pure BS or it actually could mean something.

Most importantly!! Manage your downside. Once you manage your downside well, the upside will eventually follow suit.

Due to many of such incidents within the centralized financial industry, many sought to take refuge in a decentralization and this is where crypto comes in.

Unfortunately, Crypto being a new asset class, with many inefficiencies is a recipe for exploitation. This is where many begin looking for loopholes. E.g. hacks (Bridge exploit), scammers (paid group), NFT rugpull, illiquid shit coins and etc.

I was a victim previously too. So trust me when I say I understand how it feels. Invested in illiquid honeypot where you can only buy but not sell and many other failed crypto investment.

But, I believe that everything happens for a reason. Because of these incidents, I have decided to learn how to trade, read charts, understand fundamentals and global outlook.

If these unfortunate incidents never happened, I would never have learnt the valuable lesson of capital protection regardless of size. If you can’t manage a small account then you have no business trying to manage a large one. Start small and slowly build your way up.

Wow, can’t believe that I have been in Crypto for more than a year. Anyway, this was the post where I got scammed. Barely had any viewers back then..

For those that have been following my uneventful journey, really appreciate it. Started small, 3-4x my account. Got euphoric. Lost majority of it back to the market. But, will keep learning and hopefully eventually the gains will come.


PA > Fundamentals?

Had some time to read through my previous post, I went from being an XRP maxi to a Gamefi maxi. So much has changed since then.

The more I expose myself to this sophisticated casino, the more I realised how important price action (PA) is.

I don’t deny that fundamentals are important. But at the end of the day, price action dictates the direction regardless of fundamentals.

If you wanna make money, there’s no easy way around it. You must learn how to evaluate a project based on fundamentals and when to enter/exit based on price action.

I neglected the price action part previously, that’s why I got rekted lolol. But it’s ok, mistakes are inevitable.

Reflection: PA is king regardless.

DCA into shorts?

I literally just saw a twitter influencer bragging about making a 6x in this current market sentiments by DCAing into shorts. Man, I really don’t know what to feel about this. CT can be a great place for learning however it can also be one of best place to get you rugged.

DCAing into shorts is a highly advanced trading strategy that is not suitable for most (including myself). Sure, 6x is an amazing return currently but have you truly considered the risk that you are taking for this 6x? You could get liquidated for all you know.

Please exercise caution when going through CT. If you would like to try out a new trading strategy, always start with a small capital first. Don’t rush it. It takes years to become a profitable trader and many will fail before they succeed. Risk management is key.

Highly recommended if you would like to learn more about FA/TA.
Currently in AVAX long, SL in profit, I have taken 75% out. Let’s see how this goes. Personally leaning more towards the yellow line as I feel that the market still has alil more room to pump.

FTM update

Sold half of my FTM at a loss. Been questioning my thesis recently a lot recently. I just don’t see any fundamental drivers for FTM currently unlike SOL where there’s still meaningful NFT activity going on despite current market sentiments.

Additionally, the FTM-TOMB depeg and the blind moonboi community has further accelerated my decision to cut loss. Could be a bad move and I might regret it but oh well. Cope alil, move on.

Despite multiple network issues at SOL, I still see a massive potential for SOL to go head to head with Eth in the far future. Every protocol will have its own set of issues during its infancy. Give it some time to prove itself.

Might not be getting SOL as my Aurory exposure has given me sufficient exposure to the SOL ecosystem imo. It may not survive this bear, but my thesis for Aurory is still intact. As I’ve said many times, despite current market sentiments, they’re still pushing major updates. Given my thesis on gamefi, I’m willing to give this a shot because the upside is more than the downside at this point of time.

Other reason why I sold half of my FTM at a loss, it’s because I see better opportunities at this point of time.

Don’t blindly hold onto your bags anons, keep questioning your thesis. Once broken, don’t be afraid to sell at a loss.

Follow liquidity like what I’ve said previously. I’ve decided to long AVAX to hedge my KNC short. Any profits from AVAX will be used to add onto my KNC short.

$27-28 and I’ll start taking some profits.

Sorry if you’ve gotten into FTM because of me. Pls always DYOR, whatever I share here isn’t FA. This platform serve as a reflection for myself instead of a signal group. Atb anons

Lesson learnt from this: Always take profits REGARDLESS of how bullish you are on a project. Always take healthy profits!!!

Embrace frugality

Awesome vid! Thought that I should share it here.
100k net worth before the age of 30 would be my biggest goal for now.

Do note that these advices might not apply in SG, so gotta adapt this plan according to your needs.

Simple summary

  • Live beyond your means, save as much as you can
  • DCA into index funds (SP500)
  • Enjoy things that are free
  • Repeat over and over again
  • Financial freedom!
  • Simple plan but challenging path

ATB anons!

Bear market thoughts (Alt capitulation)

Felt that I could have stuck to my plans better (much better in fact), was absorbed by fundamentals over price action but should’ve of used TA better to determine when to exit and when to take a loss.

I did well at cutting losses initially (around late 2021). Retrospectively, it could be due to lack of conviction on the coins that I was holding onto.

Hence I decided to build unfazed conviction on the projects that I’m investing. Decided to determine entry through major support levels, not a bad move tbh. But at the end of the day, when those major support levels are broken. Maybe it is time to exit. Also gonna learn to be more patient and wait for an accumulation zone before adding.

Perhaps I could’ve been more objective and not be blinded (I still am tbh lolol). But it is what it is. Rekted tbh. But, I’m gonna stay in this space regardless of what happens.

A few major lessons for me personally

1. Wait for an accumulation zone

2. Know when to cut losses

3. Build conviction smartly and not blindly

4. Investing in a good projects is awesome! But only invest at the right time and not during peak euphoria. (Could’ve done much better with this)

Moving forward, I still believe in the tokens that I’m investing in. Thesis has not changed. I still believe that Gamefi will have it’s time, still believe that CRV is undervalued and that FTM devs will create more protocols to induce sticky liquidity.

Despite no changes in thesis, my entry could’ve been much better. But hey, who could’ve known? Gotta learn to move on and not be harsh on yourself. But I’m glad that I managed my downside pretty well by investing in other assets too. Just received my dividends from my Reits investment. Used that to treat myself to a good meal (Kunafe again tehe).

Hopefully, a few years down when I read this post, I would be in a very different position compared to now (Life changing money kek). But for now, I’m gonna take it step by step and focus on things that really matters. Until then, keep pushing anons, the end might be close.

Life is precious

Life is truly precious. It’s the only thing that money can’t buy. I only understood this until recently. Don’t take your health for granted. Guaranteed, it’s gonna hurt. Truly sorry for those involved in Luna or UST.

Horrible sight to see. Instant nuke. Nothing is ever constant.

Before you start being nasty to Luna maxis, remember that this can happen to you or your family members. Be kind and nice, treat people the way that you would want to be treated.

For individuals affected by this, if you ever need a listening ear. I am always within reach. My portfolio took a huge beating too, guaranteed it’s nothing compared to Luna and I only feel your pain partially. But believe me, it is not worth your life.

I have seen so many people praying for a second chance in life or even just alittle more time so that they can spend it with their loved ones. What you have is time, it sucks. But if you have time, then you can rebuild whatever you have lost. YOU CAN REBUILD AGAIN. Definitely.

Come up with an action plan, look at this mistake objectively.

  1. Were you taking too big of a risk?
  2. Why did you take such a huge uncalculated risk?
  3. Most importantly, what can you do to try to minimize the chances of such an incident happening in the future?
  4. Additionally, what can you do currently to reduce the impact?
  5. Lastly, were you diversified enough? Diversified in terms of having assets OUTSIDE of crypto. E.g. SP500, Reits and etc.

Take something of value from this painful lesson. Every negative experience is a positive one if you CHOOSE to look at it from a different angle.

For those, that are still in game. You can complain, lose money and even feel devastated. But dont quit. Once you quit, it’s over. This is necessary pain, it will always be worse before it gets better. Stay focus, we will get through it eventually!

Latest DCA strat

Everyone makes mistakes, no one is perfect. The key is to recognize them early and work on them. Mad respect to individuals that openly admit their mistakes. Never talk in absolutes.. Always have a point of invalidation.

Occasionally, I would question myself if I am making the right choice choosing to DCA in current market sentiments because if I have waited just one more month and lump all the DCA together at a fixed price, my entry would have been much more attractive. But truth to be told, no one knows where the bottom is. Despite being slightly more proficient with chart analysis, I still go back to old roots. Which is to never try to time the market hence I would like to share my simple DCA strat.

I would DCA a fixed amount on a weekly basis. So it is ALWAYS once a week, but how much I DCA in depends on the price. If prices ain’t attractive, I DCA lesser. When prices are attractive, I DCA more. I rotate my weekly DCA between FTM and CRV for now. Once I have accumulated enough FTM/CRV, I would move on to WILD. Absolute steal for WILD at these current valuations.

As for AURY, I am waiting for the chart to look healthier before going in again. Tricky one tbh. I will just give you an example on how I would do it.

Weekly DCA: 200-500 (Example)

  • Week 1> CRV: $3.4 means that I would DCA 200
  • Week 2 > CRV: $3 > bump it up to 300
  • Week 3 > CRV: $2.5 > bump it up to 350
  • Week 4 > CRV: $1.8 > Bump it up to 400

This way I am continuously accumulating and the amount I DCA is fluid. Really depends on what the market presents. This way, I am not trying to time the market, but rather react to what the market presents.

I love this strat tbh, but do note that I have a point where I will stop accumulating CRV. Anything above $3. I would prolly stop accumulating and focus on other holdings. Simple as that.

When it comes to Tradfi, I apply this strat as well. Just monthly DCA instead of weekly. Crypto is too volatile for you to do it monthly. You’ll be able to catch movements better if you do it on a weekly basis. Keep it simple anons. I’m all about simplicity. No fancy stuff here. I plan to keep repeating until it no longer make sense to which is when things are overvalued again kek.

This strat should work well for you anons. If you’re in a fundamentally sound project, then dont be able afraid to buy more at lower prices.

2 more weeks before the next placement. Gonna fully enjoy my time before the next one begins. Thanks for reading this anons! Hope that this strat would be effective for you. Remember, its all about time in the market!

Importance of TP

Talked about geno wen it was 8, mooned to 22 and back down to 11

If you’ve started taking profits from 16-18, GMI. Contrary to what many other CT tells you, “HODL TILL IT MOONS”, “If you don’t HODL then blame yourself if you miss the next 10-20x”, blah blah blah.

I believe in compounding, take out your capital + small profit, leave a small moon bag. Now repeat with your slightly bigger capital. That’s all.

12.8 next for AURY

No alphas for now, just sticking to my long term convictions. Not in a rush to accumulate anything. Frustrating times indeed but if you adopt a long term outlook in Crypto and believe that it will succeed as a whole, then you prolly GMI.