Bail out?

Same thoughts. Those that don’t manage their risk well should be taught a lesson by the market.

Repeated many times but risk management is key if you wanna survive in the game. Without it, you’ll get rekted sooner rather than later.

I suspect that there could be a contagion effect similar to what we saw during FTX debacle. Where other big names start to crack one by one.

I think we should all be thankful that these events are pretty unlikely in SG given the strict regulations and scrutiny under MAS.

Going back, I do think that companies that don’t manage their risk should be punished or many others will just follow suit. How many times can you save them? Eventually, resources will be exhausted. Vicious cycle.

And when the eventual crash comes, it’ll be far worse than expected. My take is don’t let it snowball. Recipe for disaster.. if one topples, let it be. Move on. Focus on the next logical step which is how can we prevent this from happening in the future.

SVB, Lehman brothers collapse etc. All these are the underlying reason for the birth of Bitcoin. Satoshi’s vision. Despite me being optimistic about blockchain technology. I don’t think that it’ll ever replace fiat imo.

Just my 2 cents.. I think it’s more likely that BTC remains as a speculative asset class. But eventually the volatility will reduce significantly. Something like the tradfi market where 5-10% moves are considered significant.

So take this opportunity to learn and capitalise on this volatility and inefficiency. I’m still learning to date & it’s a PVP market honestly. But eventually with a framework, things should get “easier” or rather you become more adaptable.

Learn during the bear and reap the rewards during bull. LFGGGG

More pain ahead.. SVB, USDC depeg..

https://typicalphysiokid.wordpress.com/2023/01/04/why-im-not-bullish-yet-2023/

Key is to stay objective with your system and don’t deviate from it. I am looking for potential accumulation zones in the next 3-9 months if an opportunity presents itself. Like what I have mentioned previously, I am not bullish yet but I do think that the time to buy is really really close.

The time to be courageous and start buying is pret close imo. 3-6 months out maybe? But I think somewhere between mid-late this year would be a fantastic time to buy. I have a few alts in mind. Fundamentals aside, hype is important in this space. I do think that the alts that I plan to accumulate will eventually gain good traction. That’s my belief at least.

Except for those micro caps, I haven’t been putting on-ramping anything significant to buy big yet.

I know these news can be daunting. But I do think that this is necessary pain given how crazy things ran previously. SPX 2x from covid lows lolol. So when credit becomes tighter in the presence of sticky inflation. It’s gonna hurt of course. Many cracks will start to show. Who knows how many more black swans event will come?

The market is truly a fascinating place made up from so many different individuals with different response.

But continue to have skin in the game. Don’t give up. If you are still here with me reading this post. Know that this too shall pass. Eventually greed will return and your portfolio will start to show green if you keep buying at the lows. Then that is when you will remember this exact moment and start to plan your TP targets or exit targets.

2024-2025 prolly? Who knows. But good probability since BTC halving is around that period.

Those people that were screaming the bottom is in since the start of year, take note of it. Now you know who to avoid listening to. Be objective. Wash those out and only include those with valuable information in your circle.

I bought a significant bag of VOO at around 320 back in Nov-Dec I think. But I reckon that prices will eventually retract back to 320 and prolly 300. Buttttt, all these are just probabilities. May or may not happen. If it happens, I will load up significantly again & up my DCA amount too.

Before I end off: Just wanna say this, things may seem dark and depressing now. But really. Keep striving and looking forward. Keep DCAing into good stuff like e.g. VOO. Hard to go wrong really & you will have yourself to thank 2-3 years from now.

& Keep a significant amount of your networth off Crypto, as you never know what will happen next.. FTX, Luna and even your stables are not stable lolol. Only put in what you are willing to part to. Then those $$ that you are willing to part. Go degen on it. Explore different chains, meet like minded people. Interact with them and most importantly learn and enjoy the process.

If you want the multiples with a small capital then you HAVE to go to the other side of risk curve. On chain coins. No other way about it, but be prepared to write off this amount. Either moon or doom tbh.

Not trying to make you euphoric. But that’s where the 10-100x lies. I have seen it happen multiple times but didn’t make any efforts as it was too troublesome. This time I didnt make the same mistake and I managed to break-even whatever that I have lost previously. “Unrekted” lolol.

So I am back to the starting point after tremendous effort. It was not easy tbh but defo possible given the right market conditions. Which is clearly not now. Those that are interested in these alts, you know how to get to me. Not gonna shill it publicly or many would get rekted like how I did previously.

If you wanna stay safe. Go for BTC/ETH and VOO. The boomer play. DCA.. Very unlikely that you will fail. ATB.

20k BTC (Moon time?)

Could’ve been the fuel, who knows

I’ve caught most of the movement however not in the size that I would’ve liked. That’s BTC for you eh, once it moves, it rarely gives you the chance to enter. 25k BTC incoming?

It also screws up your mindset, making you FOMO at the top thinking that the bottom was in.

Eth to take out 1.8k next?

Really interesting to see how quickly sentiments changes in Crypto. This is why it’s important to have a framework to build your conviction.

https://typicalphysiokid.wordpress.com/2023/01/04/why-im-not-bullish-yet-2023/

Not yet imo.. I could be wrong. No 100%. But probabilities are still to the downside.

Take note

Not trying to be overly bearish at the lows. But I do suspect that this could be the start of a macro accumulation range from some alts.

0.1 support held for $WOO multiple times. This is where I would like to buy. Accumulate at the tail end of an accumulation zone. Maximise your risk adjusted returns.

Almost 3x my money on SOL eco. Time to take 50% out again soon. Reason why I am keeping half a bag it’s because I want exposure to MEME plays and I think that this can have a good run when the true bull returns.

I think 0.6 soon or I’ll slowly accumulate at lower levels.

Just trading the charts/sentiments on this meme play. Goal is to accumulate so much as possible.

Another shitcoin that I got in around 0.0038. Gib 7-8 and I’ll be completely out. Just riding on the AI narrative.

This AI narrative is dumb imo. No fundamentals. Zero. Nada. But still mooned almost 2-3x across the board.

Sound like a broken record, but there is no fundamentals be it in tradfi or crypto. The only way to be on the right side, is to visualise HOW people would view these “fundamentals”. How they view will affect how they react and these collective actions will bring about a chain reaction effect.

Meme coin, 0 IQ play imo. Eventually will moon. The only sector that has shown to moon over and over again in Crypto. Since doge time if I’m not wrong. So in the past 2-3 cycles, meme coins have always been part of it. Small sample size as Crypto is still relatively new but prolly enough to make an educated guess.

Most gains came from following the narrative in spot and chill. So far, I’ve done fairly well. So next step is to not screw up my profits and return it back. This is where TA comes in. Identify your invalidation and work your way from there.

Atb anons.

Rogue trader (Reflection)

This is honestly one of the most insane true story to date that happened in Singapore back in 1990s.

Basically, Nick was a futures trader. Initially, he lost a tiny sum but was able to recover through gambling on futures. So, this prolly enhanced his self-confidence and made him into a true degen.

Took another big bet again but was unable to recover. Repeated over and over again just to cover the initial mistake. Losses kept piling up and eventually amounted to 1 billion in trading losses. Many have lost their life savings because of 1 man..

Barings bank became insolvent and went bankrupt solely due to this incident. This story really drives home the importance of risk management. If you dont manage your downside, the market will manage it for you.

That’s the thing about trading, many glorify it to be a beautiful art where you can eventually achieve financial freedom and everyone gets to be happy. But truth to be told, every single dollar that you gain came from someone else. It could be their life savings or their child’s education funds.

So, is it really something to be proud of? To put it bluntly, sounds like glorified stealing to me. But, it is what it is, natural selection at its best. I believe that there are still whales out there manipulating the market like Nick. As a retail investor, you’re already at a disadvantage given the knowledge disparity. So, the least you can do to protect yourself is to arm yourself with knowledge. Only then will you be able to discern if this is pure BS or it actually could mean something.

Most importantly!! Manage your downside. Once you manage your downside well, the upside will eventually follow suit.

Due to many of such incidents within the centralized financial industry, many sought to take refuge in a decentralization and this is where crypto comes in.

Unfortunately, Crypto being a new asset class, with many inefficiencies is a recipe for exploitation. This is where many begin looking for loopholes. E.g. hacks (Bridge exploit), scammers (paid group), NFT rugpull, illiquid shit coins and etc.

I was a victim previously too. So trust me when I say I understand how it feels. Invested in illiquid honeypot where you can only buy but not sell and many other failed crypto investment.

But, I believe that everything happens for a reason. Because of these incidents, I have decided to learn how to trade, read charts, understand fundamentals and global outlook.

If these unfortunate incidents never happened, I would never have learnt the valuable lesson of capital protection regardless of size. If you can’t manage a small account then you have no business trying to manage a large one. Start small and slowly build your way up.

Wow, can’t believe that I have been in Crypto for more than a year. Anyway, this was the post where I got scammed. Barely had any viewers back then..

For those that have been following my uneventful journey, really appreciate it. Started small, 3-4x my account. Got euphoric. Lost majority of it back to the market. But, will keep learning and hopefully eventually the gains will come.

LFGGGG

PA > Fundamentals?

Had some time to read through my previous post, I went from being an XRP maxi to a Gamefi maxi. So much has changed since then.

The more I expose myself to this sophisticated casino, the more I realised how important price action (PA) is.

I don’t deny that fundamentals are important. But at the end of the day, price action dictates the direction regardless of fundamentals.

If you wanna make money, there’s no easy way around it. You must learn how to evaluate a project based on fundamentals and when to enter/exit based on price action.

I neglected the price action part previously, that’s why I got rekted lolol. But it’s ok, mistakes are inevitable.

Reflection: PA is king regardless.

DCA into shorts?

I literally just saw a twitter influencer bragging about making a 6x in this current market sentiments by DCAing into shorts. Man, I really don’t know what to feel about this. CT can be a great place for learning however it can also be one of best place to get you rugged.

DCAing into shorts is a highly advanced trading strategy that is not suitable for most (including myself). Sure, 6x is an amazing return currently but have you truly considered the risk that you are taking for this 6x? You could get liquidated for all you know.

Please exercise caution when going through CT. If you would like to try out a new trading strategy, always start with a small capital first. Don’t rush it. It takes years to become a profitable trader and many will fail before they succeed. Risk management is key.

Highly recommended if you would like to learn more about FA/TA.

Currently in AVAX long, SL in profit, I have taken 75% out. Let’s see how this goes. Personally leaning more towards the yellow line as I feel that the market still has alil more room to pump.

FTM update

Sold half of my FTM at a loss. Been questioning my thesis recently a lot recently. I just don’t see any fundamental drivers for FTM currently unlike SOL where there’s still meaningful NFT activity going on despite current market sentiments.

Additionally, the FTM-TOMB depeg and the blind moonboi community has further accelerated my decision to cut loss. Could be a bad move and I might regret it but oh well. Cope alil, move on.

Despite multiple network issues at SOL, I still see a massive potential for SOL to go head to head with Eth in the far future. Every protocol will have its own set of issues during its infancy. Give it some time to prove itself.

Might not be getting SOL as my Aurory exposure has given me sufficient exposure to the SOL ecosystem imo. It may not survive this bear, but my thesis for Aurory is still intact. As I’ve said many times, despite current market sentiments, they’re still pushing major updates. Given my thesis on gamefi, I’m willing to give this a shot because the upside is more than the downside at this point of time.

Other reason why I sold half of my FTM at a loss, it’s because I see better opportunities at this point of time.

Don’t blindly hold onto your bags anons, keep questioning your thesis. Once broken, don’t be afraid to sell at a loss.

Follow liquidity like what I’ve said previously. I’ve decided to long AVAX to hedge my KNC short. Any profits from AVAX will be used to add onto my KNC short.

$27-28 and I’ll start taking some profits.

Sorry if you’ve gotten into FTM because of me. Pls always DYOR, whatever I share here isn’t FA. This platform serve as a reflection for myself instead of a signal group. Atb anons

Lesson learnt from this: Always take profits REGARDLESS of how bullish you are on a project. Always take healthy profits!!!

Embrace frugality

Awesome vid! Thought that I should share it here.

100k net worth before the age of 30 would be my biggest goal for now.

Do note that these advices might not apply in SG, so gotta adapt this plan according to your needs.

Simple summary

• Live beyond your means, save as much as you can
• DCA into index funds (SP500)
• Enjoy things that are free
• Repeat over and over again
• Financial freedom!
• Simple plan but challenging path

ATB anons!

Bear market thoughts (Alt capitulation)

Felt that I could have stuck to my plans better (much better in fact), was absorbed by fundamentals over price action but should’ve of used TA better to determine when to exit and when to take a loss.

I did well at cutting losses initially (around late 2021). Retrospectively, it could be due to lack of conviction on the coins that I was holding onto.

Hence I decided to build unfazed conviction on the projects that I’m investing. Decided to determine entry through major support levels, not a bad move tbh. But at the end of the day, when those major support levels are broken. Maybe it is time to exit. Also gonna learn to be more patient and wait for an accumulation zone before adding.

Perhaps I could’ve been more objective and not be blinded (I still am tbh lolol). But it is what it is. Rekted tbh. But, I’m gonna stay in this space regardless of what happens.

A few major lessons for me personally

1. Wait for an accumulation zone

2. Know when to cut losses

3. Build conviction smartly and not blindly

4. Investing in a good projects is awesome! But only invest at the right time and not during peak euphoria. (Could’ve done much better with this)

Moving forward, I still believe in the tokens that I’m investing in. Thesis has not changed. I still believe that Gamefi will have it’s time, still believe that CRV is undervalued and that FTM devs will create more protocols to induce sticky liquidity.

Despite no changes in thesis, my entry could’ve been much better. But hey, who could’ve known? Gotta learn to move on and not be harsh on yourself. But I’m glad that I managed my downside pretty well by investing in other assets too. Just received my dividends from my Reits investment. Used that to treat myself to a good meal (Kunafe again tehe).

Hopefully, a few years down when I read this post, I would be in a very different position compared to now (Life changing money kek). But for now, I’m gonna take it step by step and focus on things that really matters. Until then, keep pushing anons, the end might be close.

Life is precious

Just woke up. I'm feeling sick to my stomach over Luna.

What's worse is reading about all the thoughts of suicide online.

It was a bad trade – you can always make more money.

Hell no this isn't worth taking your life over.

My heart goes out to everyone affected. pic.twitter.com/eEXxsaQHBh

— The DeFi Edge 🗡️ (@thedefiedge) May 11, 2022

Life is truly precious. It’s the only thing that money can’t buy. I only understood this until recently. Don’t take your health for granted. Guaranteed, it’s gonna hurt. Truly sorry for those involved in Luna or UST.

Horrible sight to see. Instant nuke. Nothing is ever constant.

Before you start being nasty to Luna maxis, remember that this can happen to you or your family members. Be kind and nice, treat people the way that you would want to be treated.

For individuals affected by this, if you ever need a listening ear. I am always within reach. My portfolio took a huge beating too, guaranteed it’s nothing compared to Luna and I only feel your pain partially. But believe me, it is not worth your life.

I have seen so many people praying for a second chance in life or even just alittle more time so that they can spend it with their loved ones. What you have is time, it sucks. But if you have time, then you can rebuild whatever you have lost. YOU CAN REBUILD AGAIN. Definitely.

Come up with an action plan, look at this mistake objectively.

1. Were you taking too big of a risk?
2. Why did you take such a huge uncalculated risk?
3. Most importantly, what can you do to try to minimize the chances of such an incident happening in the future?
4. Additionally, what can you do currently to reduce the impact?
5. Lastly, were you diversified enough? Diversified in terms of having assets OUTSIDE of crypto. E.g. SP500, Reits and etc.

Take something of value from this painful lesson. Every negative experience is a positive one if you CHOOSE to look at it from a different angle.

For those, that are still in game. You can complain, lose money and even feel devastated. But dont quit. Once you quit, it’s over. This is necessary pain, it will always be worse before it gets better. Stay focus, we will get through it eventually!