Market sentiments (Objective)

Pret crazy to see Crypto “decoupling” in the short term and seeing Pentoshi being a mini bull. (Mad respect to this champ)

But it kinda make sense for Crypto to be rallying alil given that US30Y and US10Y went down alil. What doesn’t fall into place here is that SP500 hasn’t been responding the way it should be.

There it is..

Having said that, it still doesn’t make sense for Crypto to be rallying as it is usually correlated to SP500 and SP500/Crypto/stocks are inversely correlated with US10Y/30Y. So, objectively going forward any pumps are still for shorting imo.

Look at the trajectory of both uptrends for US bonds.. explosive and unforgiving. Doesn’t look like it’s stopping anytime soon. Hence there is a good chance that SP500 may eventually revisit high 2000ish if this continues.

Smash through this support and 2956 will be next..
Interesting video..

If Credit Suisse crashes like Lehmann, it is gonna be really gruesome imo. SP500 and Crypto prolly slips through any existing support like butter if this happens.

So after pointing out objectively all the real concerns, why am I still heavily adding onto SP500? I strongly believe that in times of greatest fear, comes the greatest opportunities. This is where asymmetrical bet lies.

SP500 right at major support, a level where I marked out 8 months back, so of course I feel the fear that everyone is feeling, I am only human. But after laying out all the objective factors in comparison to opportunities, I would say that one should feel euphoric at current prices esp on strong assets. So, being objective allows me to shift my focus from fear to euphoria. And tbh, the lower SP500, BTC, ETH, SOL and etc goes, the more euphoric I get.

Madness
Upside vs downside: Just another POV
Just another POV too

DCA at the right time (downwards) at logical support zones to bring your average entry down then perhaps you could enjoy a 2-5x upside.

Q4 2021 till Q2 2023 may present some beautiful buying opportunities so preserve some of your capital until then..

;>

Patience is key (Sp500)

Post on Feb 9th 2022, a lot has changed since then , even my charts lolol
Marked this level out since Feb (8 months ago)

I’ve been patiently waiting for this. 8 long beautiful months for me to save up more ammos and hit hard when the time comes.

I’m ready, let’s get this. 🤝

Have a scheduled SOL post coming up prolly next month, discussing FA and TA on it. So do keep a look out. Atb anons.

CFA (Nikko AM REITS) etf

If you’re a lazy investor and dont wanna pick your own stocks but still want exposure to the general REITs market, then ETF is the answer. I believe that there are a few reits ETF out there e.g. Lion-phillip.

One of the more popular one these days would be SYFE’s Reits + portfolio. I believe Kevin (Turtleinvestor) has covered why he chose to use SYFE’s platform for his REIT’s investment. Check it out if you’re interested.

https://www.turtleinvestor.net/syfe-reit-updated-review-after-1-year-5-reasons-why-i-will-keep-using-it/

So, I am not going to go into the fundamental perspective of which REIT etf to pick. But in terms of expense ratio wise, CFA (0.5%) is the lowest if I’ve not mistaken.

Think that he covers the fundamental perspective much better than myself. I am just going into TA.
I’m just gonna zoom into TA and touch each of them briefly.
Eventually this shall revisit $7 imo, so short term down-trend but as you can see, it has been going up since 2018, so normal for it to retrace. But currently it is below the 12/21 EMA, so until the 12/21 EMA compresses, this will continue to go down. But given the outlook of the chart. I think this is a good dip to buy imo. Clear long term uptrend trajectory.
Generally still in a nice uptrend, and 12/21 EMA compressing nicely.. Nothing to be worried about atm.
Looking good too, good dip to buy imo. Still resting about support, only thing that looks alil worrying is the cross of 12/21 EMA. But until it loses support, it is still a good dip to buy.
I expect this to slowly head down towards target eventually.
Same thing.. Clear uptrend. Only worrying thing is the crossed over of 12/21 EMA. This chart looks like pre-BTC tower fall imo.
Clear uptrend, so dips are still for buying imo..
Same thing
Looks like crap LOL, eventually the blue line imo. Lucky it’s only 3% of the entire CFA.

Despite many of these charts being in a uptrend, there is a real possibility that the following chart (below) can happen because the 12/21 EMA has crossed in almost all the chart.

Yes, this can happen to many of the charts above. So the downside risk is real for REITS and still present imo. The worrying part is the 12/21 EMA crossing like what I’ve shared..

Having said that, REITS are a completely different asset compared to growth stocks (SP500 falls here too despite being an ETF). So, the trajectory of market structure may not follow the a typical growth stock pattern. So, it may still continue to go up.

There’s a reason why it hasn’t dipped like a typical growth stock chart e.g. Meta/BTC/Netflix and etc. During times like this, when people stay risk off from growth stocks, REITS can be a good place to transfer your wealth to. I mean, slower market movement coupled with good dividends sounds like a good place to hide.

Now.. moving on to CFA

Looks horrible LOL.. Tbh, I’ve been DCAing into this w/o looking at the chart. I have been doing this for a few years now. After the covid crash, it is clear it has not been doing that well. Still in a clear downtrend. Looking like 0.86 level will be revisited eventually again.

But honestly, I am in this for the long term and a ETF is generally alot more stable compared to picking individual stocks. So yeah, I am just going to “blindly” keep DCAing into. I see lower prices as a good opportunity to accumulate more. I do think that this will eventually go back up again given the uptrend trajectory of the charts (sub parts of this ETF) that I have shared above.

Even the STI ETF chart looks better imo.

Tbh, I am big lover of REITS and I would like to eventually accumulate at least 7 figures worth. That would make up to at least 40k per annual. Passive income at it’s best.

But due to the slow growth trajectory, the plan now is to go for something with higher growth potential e.g. Crypto/SP500 and then dump it into REITS in the far future. That’s the biggest goal. Of course, I would be dividing it into Nikko AM reits ETF and Nikko STI ETF. (I dont like being overly exposed to one type of dividend play stocks)

Going forward, my crypto post will start to be alil more boring given that retail money are slowly leaving the space. This is when you start to research and buy a shitload of your convicted alts before unloading during the bull market.

That’s all I have for today. Long post. All the best!




Nikko AM REITS

I’ve a scheduled post coming up regarding REITS.. A different view from your usual fundamental stuff. It was prepped 2-3 weeks ago? All I can say it embrace for an upcoming impact if you’re invested in this.

This does not look good at all LOL. 0.86 next.. Whatever it is, risk-off behavior is seriously affecting the whole market. I will continue to DCA into CFA. But I really don’t like how crappy this chart looks LOL. No linear progression at all.

This is one that will stay as a fundamental play. The lower it goes, the better for me. Hard to go wrong with an ETF. Esp with all the top companies in there. This will eventually bounce. Only DCA-ing a small amount into it every month. VOO will remain the largest tradfi play regardless. R/R is the best with VOO.

All the best anons. Hope that yall will enjoy the upcoming REIT post!

There it is… (29/09/2022)

China market and 2801

I think these videos explains the situation at China better than myself. I dont claim to be an expert or anything especially when it comes to politics or stocks.

Brief summary

  1. 70% of China’s wealth is tied up in real estate
  2. The real estate industry holds approximately 1/3 of the entire China economy (Which is huge imo)
  3. So if real estate collapses there, the effect will be huge no doubt.. “Evergrande”

Lots and lots of FUD going around for China currently and unfortunately financial transparency is lacking here. So the only thing that is transparent here are the charts..

Random scribbles

You really dont wanna see them losing the $18 level or it’s gonna take a long long time for it to recover given how the market structure has broken.

How you should invest in ETF is defo different from your shit-ass alt coins. This is where you can build unwavering conviction because you know that the probability of the China economy going to zero is pretty damn low.

It is more probable that it will go much higher than current levels 2-3 decades from now. So, patience really pays here.

If you are a “lazy” investor then ETFs play would be ideal for you. Tbh, I started out as “lazy investor” hence my stocks portfolio are really lazy and simple but effective. I know all the ETFs that I hold will only appreciate in the future. REITS, VOO and 2801 (more speculative)..

The reason why 2801 is down so much would be due to the huge real estate allocation relative to their economy and the downfall of many China tech stocks.

But this should not come as a surprise lolol, look at how much tech stocks have mooned, only a matter of time before they drop like grapes, nothing goes up in a straight line.

Not forgetting NIO too

The only country currently that is capable of competing with US.. Only time will tell if I am right on this conviction. Let’s review this post again sometime in the future. (Maybe a few decades later?)

VOO

Started to reduce my monthly DCA size on VOO given how much it has ran. I would like to keep some ammos available when 310 comes.

For those that are interested, Im using FSMONE so regardless of what happens I’ll always DCA on the 8th of every month. Depending the price closer to the date, I’ll adjust the size accordingly.

Will prolly update my VOO plan here instead of constantly spamming new post to talk about the same thing. Helps to keep things neat too.

Decreased my monthly DCA for VOO and increased 2801 slightly.

Leaving a huge chunk of ammos for VOO when bearish sentiments starts to resurface again. Until then, will only DCA in small amounts.

SP500 soon…

Getting close.. still alil room to go. Most of my cai png money came from shorting instead of longing. In a bear market, you can short at crappy entries and get away with it. So your best bet is to short.

The opposite applies in a bull market.. market context is king imo. I’ve been DCAing more aggressively into SP500 now. It’s the main focus for now.

DCAing into SP500 during dips have always been profitable historically, keep it simple with tradfi. Just 1-3 index funds and you’re set for life. Of course, you can never use history to predict future events. But history does influence probabilities. So your best bet is to go with probabilities.

Major outlook looking pretty harsh going forward with recession being a real possibility. But this is also the best time to buy. Keep stacking SP500, invest as much as you can into it while not compromising your quality of life. When the inevitable bull returns, you’ll be thanking yourself for the decisions that you have made today.

Too much SAGA around Crypto currently, Celsius, Luna, 3AC.. etc etc. This is what happens when liquidity is drying up. Nothing much to update here, just looking for shorting opportunities.

Will update again when I see an accumulation phase for ETH. That’s the time to start massively accumulating. Hopefully till BTC halving in 2024.. plenty of time to get a crap load by then. Just short term trades until then.

Tradfi/Crypto simple strategy

If the weekly closes below 1700 like this, it prolly goes to 1300 regardless of bounces in between as major support levels are broken for now..

What I’ve learnt from my previous mistakes is not go in too early, wait for an accumulation zone before going in. That’s how you should play in a bear market at least. Short/fade pump, wait for an accumulation zone then repeat.

Whereas in a bull market what you should do, is to buy every dip and sell when it 2-3x. My mistake was using a bull market strat during a bear market and not being agile enough to adapt to changing sentiments. I’m still working on my system through short term trades and it’s been going decent so far.

But should you ALWAYS wait for an accumulation zone? When it comes to Crypto, I would say yes.. but tradfi maybe not.

SP500 is a clear example of why accumulation zone doesn’t always apply

Every dip is for buying in this case, which is why those that DCA into SP500 and go in even harder during dips would win in the long run.

So imo, the best strat when it comes to SP500, is to DCA. But when it comes to ETH/BTC, it’ll be wise to wait for an accumulation zone before going in. Buy a crap load of ETH then sell during euphoria, easier said than done but it’s possible to do.

It’s ALMOST a certainty that ETH will eventually break past ATHs, when that happens you’ll easily 2-3x your initial. So this is a lazy man play but the success rate for this approach is high imo.

The key in Crypto, is to be dynamic. If you like to go for bigger gains then sure go for alts but be prepared for it to go a lot lower before going back up. (Rekt like me lolol)

My strat going forward in summary

1: Crypto > wait for an accumulation zone, ideally around 700-1.3k, buy a crap load of ETH then sell some at 4K to take out my initial (+ small profits) at least. Keep a small amount and ride it up to five figure ETH. (When this happens, your alts will go parabolic, then sell most of it, despite being underwater for now, I’m sure the alts that I own will go parabolic when it happens so I’m HODLing till then)

2. Tradfi (Index fund like SP500) > keep it simple lads, keep DCAing.. however be dynamic with it. Put in more when it’s dipping like now and lesser when it’s rising.

Both of these are simple long term plays that have very good success rate. But only if you are patient.. I might’ve lost for now (temporary), but I’m sure I’ll come back if I don’t stop learning.

Happy to have started this platform to serve as a reflection for myself in time to come. Appreciate y’all for following me through my journey and hope that you’ve gained something of value from my mistakes. Atb anons!

Tradfi cliff diving

Cliff diving in progress lolol.. Gonna be a mad ride down. But it’s alright, I’ll welcome it with open arms. Bear market is only temporary and things will inevitably be better.

Look like crap tbh, no signs of bottoming or accumulating.
-70% for Netflix lolol from almost 700 to 190 and Crypto seems to be risky?? Makes a lot of sense lolol
Another example

Doesn’t matter which market you trade, whales always manipulate to create max FUD before loading their bags. Not interested in Tradfi. Not worth the effort imo. Much prefer Crypto.

I don’t mind accumulating at depressed prices for a few years. The eventual path will be up for SP500. Have a long term plan and stick to it. Keep it simple kek.

Tradfi ETF

Out of curiosity, I went to research alil on VWRA. Basically it’s an index that tracks the market performance around the WHOLE world.

So, I was thinking “Oh wow, maybe I could just invest in this and forgo my VOO & 2801”. As y’all might know, I’m a big fan of passive index funds despite being heavily involved in Crypto.

But after researching more, I was disappointed to see the heavy allocation towards US. So it kinda make sense why it has a similar chart to S&P 500 since most of the gains prolly came from it.

Additionally, I don’t like the measly allocation to China market. Therefore, I don’t plan to change any of my tradfi plans. If my thesis on the China market is true then it would not move the charts by much.

If anyone of you would like to educate me more about VWRA or know of any other ETF that tracks the overall market index evenly. Please do let me know! Always happy to learn from you.