Those that stuck around and learnt more during 2022 and 2023, will reap the benefits when the bull inevitably returns.
When the blue box region comes for SPX, I’ll be emptying the clip. Whether or not we nuke further. Remains to be seen. But at that point of time, the rewards outweighs the risk. When and if it comes, it’s time to forget about risk and worry about capturing upside returns. (Those that read market cycles will find this familiar)
When price reaches 18 again, I’ll be adding bigger than usual. No rush. Just buying the tail end of the range. Can afford to take a much more relax approach when it comes to tradfi ETF. Boring but defo a nice break from Crypto.
But a range is range until it’s broken. The way 2801 is accumulating is defo different from SPX hence it requires a very different approach.
For SPX, I don’t see any ranges forming, more of a lower high and lower low structure. So from this POV, buying major support “levels” seems like a more logical approach compared to 2801 where only 1 level matter. Break & it’s lights out.
You could just buy lightly into 2801 and heavier when 17-18 comes. By heavier I mean, 3-5x more than your usual DCA amount. That’ll be ideal.
Gonna be a boring 2023 imo, but it also mean that generational buying opportunities could be nearing. Always be on the lookout! ATB!
*I’m not an expert in forex & just sharing my thoughts here*
I suspect that now could be a good time to start accumulating USD given that it is heading to support and SGD/USD pair is approaching resistance. There’s a lot of price inefficiency on the SGD/USD pair. So if this falls, it’ll fall hard imo.
Personally, I’m accumulating more USD and keeping it until the time to deploy is in. I do suspect that DXY could potentially bounce off the marked out region. If that happens, equities and crypto will start to bleed out again. Could be bear market PTSD, no idea.
But I do think that it’s a smart move to start accumulating USD since it’s cheaper to do so and eventually start scaling back into whatever that you wanna buy. VOO, Crypto or whatever. Since everything is in USD & you can get more USD now and when USD rallies = equities drop then you will be able to get assets at a cheaper price with “more” USD. If this happens, happy days. If not, it isn’t a bad idea to hold onto USD imo as I believe that DXY will eventually head back up again. Maybe not ATH but at least a decent rally.
Long winded but you prolly get the gist. Always take into account forex risk when investing in non SG assets such as VOO. Atb anons!
The last time SPX touched the 200 EMA on the monthly chart was back in 2012. A decade ago. Crazy imo. The highlighted blue region is my value zone and good zone to bid imo.
But if SPX loses the box, I’ll be looking to bid 3257 then 2465 next.
If 2465 comes, this will be an absolute gift LOL. If it comes and you start to back off and not bid. NGMI lolol.
If the macro is really as bad as what it seems to be then I don’t see what SPX can’t tap 2465. If that happens, what makes you think BTC wouldn’t tag 10-13k? & what makes you think that ETH wouldn’t tag 400-500?
These are areas of interest for me and where I’ll be bidding with a good chunk of my portfolio. Just using TA to guide my entries on good assets.
By good assets, I mean assets that I know will increase in value overtime. Human psych, greed and market cycle never change. Always the same.
Hard to pick out which alt or which stock would be a nice one to bid to enjoy the ride up. Look at litecoin, perfect example lolol. Or XRP.. didn’t even moon when other alts were mooning. Dinosaur coins to say the least.
But one thing that I’m confident is that ETH/BTC will prolly go through another cycle. High probability. So I’m betting 70% in ETH and prolly 30% in PYR.
Stocks wise, 100% SPX LOL. Maybe alil reit and China index. Other than that, nothing else. I’m going for high probability wins and betting as much as I can on these.
Leaving a decent chunk left for those with lower probability but crazy returns if I’m right.
One prolly a couple hundred bucks on a small cap meme shit coin LOL. Excited to see how this will unfold. Either moon or doom.
That’s all for today. Atb anons.
I honestly would love to accumulate more of it but R/R wise. Better off with SP500. I mean who doesn’t like to receive nice quarterly dividends. Esp now that it’s cheap to accumulate the underlying asset.
But it is what it is. I think there’s a good chance that this should form the range for CFA.. between 0.8-1. Accumulate at the tail end if interested.
Imo, at this point of time, given that there are signs that (according to my system) the time to be slightly aggressive is now. So slowly adding tradfi stuff like SP500 and CFA don’t seem like a bad idea imo.
Despite the momentum still being to the downside, if you can stomach another downside of 20-30% possibly then accumulating now shouldn’t be an issue.
Be realistic, you’ll NEVER catch the bottom. But you can always plan and buy closer to the tail end of the range given if you have enough patience.
Been an exciting month in Crypto. Narrative trading is truly fun lolol. Important for you to plan out your exits tho.
Much easier to play spot and chill when the current market sentiments are “bullish”..
That’s all I’ve for today. Good luck and happy new year anons.
Would like to see a compression in the EMAs before adding on more size on my monthly DCA. I suspect that a compression is still 2-3 years ago given how much it has broke down.
Not rushing into anything so soon, just light DCA every month. The time for China to compete with US will come I believe. Still believe in my thesis. Let’s see how this one goes.
Would history repeat again? Or would SPX finally break this? I still think that the probabilities are to the downside.
Been chilling alil on this. Would like to get in with more size when the time comes. With PMI rolling over and job unemployment rates still on the low side. The feds still have room to remove liquidity and maintain their hawkish stance. Nevertheless, this brings great buying opportunities.
Send it down bears, I’ll be waiting. When unemployment rate rises & people need food over holding on to their beloved stocks. That’s when you know bottom is close. Even tho my framework has been flashing some sort of possible bottom given the macro sentiments. I’m being alil cautious here because the charts have not been to my liking.
Still think that we have at least 6 more months to go before a possible “bottom” or macro accumulation phase starts. So Q2 next year prolly before I start aggressively buying ETH. Master the cycle, this is your opportunity.
Don’t let your past failure cloud your vision. Look at datas objectively. Make an informed decision based on it.
3 digit eth would be a beaut. Can’t wait for it kek. When the bull returns & liquidity is rich. ETH NFT eco goes wild again. With their deflationary model, I would believe that 10k eth isn’t impossible. We shall see.
Not so meme after all eh?
Still doesn’t look good imo. Let’s see how the monthly closes. Honestly, besides TA, it’s important to take fundamentals into account too.
Really doesn’t make sense for people to take on more on risk with REITS if you can get a risk free 3-4% deal from bonds.
Things does look bleak currently, but if you believe in Nikko AM REIT etf, now would be a good time to dip your toes in. NFA.
Regardless of environment, TA wise this is still a strong support and will remain as support until proven otherwise. Buy in red and HODL. Keep stacking up. This is a long term retirement play. Passive income ftw.
If this breaks lower than 0.86, I think things will look really ugly. Because then it’ll be a slippery slope down all the way.
Still in this, still DCAing monthly, not ramping up my DCA size, focusing on VOO currently. But eventually this shall be my home.
I think there’s a good chance 0.86 will eventually be breached given rising interest rates.. don’t see it stopping anytime soon.
Pick your assets wisely, if you want a good dividend play and you’ve a long term horizon and dont mind DCAing on a downtrend and you’re buying this because you’re lazy to individually pick good REITs then this could be a good option. NFA again.
A moment to remember for our fallen soldier. Wait for a long wick with nice buying pressure before dipping more cash in.
Trend broken, clear lower highs and lower lows. The probabilities are towards the downside. I sold it at a 10% profit. So I’ll take it. Lots of price inefficiency to fill all the way till 2.5ish (Covid lows).
I plan to take everything including profits and dump it all into VOO. This would be a smart choice imo as when VOO regains it’s ATH, it will be +30%.
VOO defo has a better upward trendline trajectory compared to STI ETF, so this should be a no-brainer for someone who has time on their side.
However I do think that eventually in the far future I’ll sell some parts of my VOO and dump it back into STI ETF. When I’m at the age where I would like more dividends and reduced volatility.
Now compare VOO and STI ETF, clearly STI ETF has been in a range bound environment for a long time. Whereas VOO has been on an uptrend trajectory and probabilities are that it will continue to do so. Don’t fight the trend. Play the long term game.
I know that there are many die-hard fan for TESLA that believe in the TESLA’s future. Tbh, I don’t participate in Tradfi speculation. So I am just going into pure TA for this instead of fundamentals which I believe many of you are better at.
Ideally a compression of the bands and lack of activity should get you interested. Like in 2019 to early 2020 as shown above. That is when you should accumulate and go in hard. If it EVER gets to the 40ish region and you strongly believe in TESLA’s future, then it would be a beautiful one for you to accumulate.
All I can say is, the time to accumulate isn’t here yet. Not on TESLA. SP500 maybe but not this.
PhysioKid 