More pain ahead.. SVB, USDC depeg..

Key is to stay objective with your system and don’t deviate from it. I am looking for potential accumulation zones in the next 3-9 months if an opportunity presents itself. Like what I have mentioned previously, I am not bullish yet but I do think that the time to buy is really really close.

The time to be courageous and start buying is pret close imo. 3-6 months out maybe? But I think somewhere between mid-late this year would be a fantastic time to buy. I have a few alts in mind. Fundamentals aside, hype is important in this space. I do think that the alts that I plan to accumulate will eventually gain good traction. That’s my belief at least.

Except for those micro caps, I haven’t been putting on-ramping anything significant to buy big yet.

I know these news can be daunting. But I do think that this is necessary pain given how crazy things ran previously. SPX 2x from covid lows lolol. So when credit becomes tighter in the presence of sticky inflation. It’s gonna hurt of course. Many cracks will start to show. Who knows how many more black swans event will come?

The market is truly a fascinating place made up from so many different individuals with different response.

But continue to have skin in the game. Don’t give up. If you are still here with me reading this post. Know that this too shall pass. Eventually greed will return and your portfolio will start to show green if you keep buying at the lows. Then that is when you will remember this exact moment and start to plan your TP targets or exit targets.

2024-2025 prolly? Who knows. But good probability since BTC halving is around that period.

Those people that were screaming the bottom is in since the start of year, take note of it. Now you know who to avoid listening to. Be objective. Wash those out and only include those with valuable information in your circle.

I bought a significant bag of VOO at around 320 back in Nov-Dec I think. But I reckon that prices will eventually retract back to 320 and prolly 300. Buttttt, all these are just probabilities. May or may not happen. If it happens, I will load up significantly again & up my DCA amount too.

Before I end off: Just wanna say this, things may seem dark and depressing now. But really. Keep striving and looking forward. Keep DCAing into good stuff like e.g. VOO. Hard to go wrong really & you will have yourself to thank 2-3 years from now.

& Keep a significant amount of your networth off Crypto, as you never know what will happen next.. FTX, Luna and even your stables are not stable lolol. Only put in what you are willing to part to. Then those $$ that you are willing to part. Go degen on it. Explore different chains, meet like minded people. Interact with them and most importantly learn and enjoy the process.

If you want the multiples with a small capital then you HAVE to go to the other side of risk curve. On chain coins. No other way about it, but be prepared to write off this amount. Either moon or doom tbh.

Not trying to make you euphoric. But that’s where the 10-100x lies. I have seen it happen multiple times but didn’t make any efforts as it was too troublesome. This time I didnt make the same mistake and I managed to break-even whatever that I have lost previously. “Unrekted” lolol.

So I am back to the starting point after tremendous effort. It was not easy tbh but defo possible given the right market conditions. Which is clearly not now. Those that are interested in these alts, you know how to get to me. Not gonna shill it publicly or many would get rekted like how I did previously.

If you wanna stay safe. Go for BTC/ETH and VOO. The boomer play. DCA.. Very unlikely that you will fail. ATB.

Power of 3 (Trading)

Think that this power of 3 concept is pret interesting. Accumulation > manipulation and expansion. Really can be applied to any timeframe. But I think for max gains, this should be applied in a higher timeframe context.. (Takes a lot of patience tho)

Many coins are breaking out currently. Personally just following the trend/flow on alts. Nothing long term yet. Maybe just 2 (free ride for one as I have removed my capital, waiting for another free ride).

I think the power of 3 concept is really simple but a powerful tool that one can use. Accumulate during the manipulation phase. Invalidation will be if price drops below the lowest point during the manipulation and closes BELOW. Key word is close.

Really good strat for spot traders imo.
Would BTC ever revisit range lows again? I’m still leaning towards Yes. Eventually imo. Could be wrong but I’m really to flip anytime.
Good video on narrative trading and power of 3!

Made quite a fair bit so far from this “easy” mode market. Really thankful for it. Almost recovered all that I lost previously. So yeah, a really good start I must say. So much as luck had a role in it, I like to believe that my relentless efforts has helped me tremendously.

Send COTI next? 1.3 & I’m out. Leaving some funds in Binance for rotation sake.
This is why I try not to talk to micro caps here as many including myself initially can’t stand the volatility. Large swings up and down can really screw you up, low cap rotation game really requires strong will.

Always question your thesis when playing with small caps, where is the current narrative? Do you think price will eventually recover? Is it just pure FUD & attention will eventually return? What is the catalyst? Any large influencers shilling it? What’s their history? Any PnD history?

Many many dynamic factors to consider that is too fluid. Many will get wrecked without a framework. (So did I in the beginning)..

Define your framework, stick with it and ride it out. If it works out, the returns can be really handsome. Extract out your capital and alil profits and rotate. Regardless of how bullish, you should always extract your capital. Capital protection is key. Ignore what others say about it. FOCUS ON PROTECTING YOUR DOWNSIDE!

Conclusion: Narratives, attention span and power of 3..

Possible next bubble narrative

I think perhaps in mid-late 2023, AI narrative could possibly be the next bubble. All these are just speculations anyway. I can be very wrong. But I would love to capitalise on it if I’m right.

Look at APT & OP. Those that pump hard will be new shiny coins. Don’t be surprised how far it can go. Look at SOL or other metaverse coins. Crazy really.

I do think that AI narrative will have it’s time given how it is performing in current sentiments. Remember how AXS was outperforming? Before the likes of other metaverse coins catching up.

Anything with the metaverse tag on it all mooned in union. Genopets, Aurory, IMX and etc. Always be open to new ideas.

Remember how dumb metaverse sound before the narrative kicked in? I kinda feel the same way with AI now. Honestly, pretty dumb narrative imo. But I’m not gonna make the same mistake twice. This time I’ll be joining the hype.

There are many AI coins, e.g. Ocean, PHB, FET and etc. Keep these on your watchlist and deploy when the time is right. Buy the blood.

I’m gonna go with the degen approach. Either moon or doom. If it doom, I’ll just lose a small amount however if it moons, it will be crazy. So I’m willing to take the chance. The alt that I’ll be slowly adding into my portfolio is only at 1m mcap. A micro cap to put it simply. The chances of it rugging is really high. I don’t know if I’ll talk about it here. Let’s see..

Even tho I understand the “fundamentals” of the project and the potential hype behind this AI narrative. The chances of me winning, prolly close to 1-2%. So realistically, I’ll still be allocating a huge chunk to ETH when the time is right. Probabilistic thinking is crucial when it comes to investing.

The reason why I’m comfortable with allocating some to such a degen coin it’s because I know that even if this rugs, the majority of my allocation is into index (SP500 etc) funds. There’s no index fund in Crypto so buying into ETH is as good as that.

Always manage your risk first, before even thinking about risky investments. Focus on accumulating good assets and if you have spare change then sure throw some into degen investments.

This is the potential that I’m talking about hence I’m willing to take a punt.
Nice timing lolol

Only time will tell if I’m right or not. Only a very small allocation..

Early signs

Is it time to be bullish?

I’m seeing many bullish sentiments around CT. Often times, it’s best to take profit and remain in fiat during times of euphoria like this. Esp in a bear market rally.

Explained on why I’m not bullish yet.

If you have caught the recent local bottom, give yourself a pat and take that damn profit. Profits there might not be there tomorrow.

I don’t care if it’s just 10%, 20% or if it’s just $10. Take it & buy yourself a cup of coffee or whatever. Don’t give it back.

I’ve my reservations on why I don’t quite think that the lows are in. But I could be wrong. Just playing with probabilities here. PMI contracting, EMAs not compressing YET, Feds still have room to remove liquidity etc.

Hard for me to be completely bullish here imo. I’m just waiting for good buying opportunities which I think could come this year. Preserve good capital until it comes & snap on it.

Nothing has changed. Still think 3 figure ETH again. Gib 700ish and I’ll start accumulating for the next cycle.

20k BTC (Moon time?)

Could’ve been the fuel, who knows

I’ve caught most of the movement however not in the size that I would’ve liked. That’s BTC for you eh, once it moves, it rarely gives you the chance to enter. 25k BTC incoming?

It also screws up your mindset, making you FOMO at the top thinking that the bottom was in.

Eth to take out 1.8k next?

Really interesting to see how quickly sentiments changes in Crypto. This is why it’s important to have a framework to build your conviction.

Not yet imo.. I could be wrong. No 100%. But probabilities are still to the downside.
Take note

Not trying to be overly bearish at the lows. But I do suspect that this could be the start of a macro accumulation range from some alts.

0.1 support held for $WOO multiple times. This is where I would like to buy. Accumulate at the tail end of an accumulation zone. Maximise your risk adjusted returns.
Almost 3x my money on SOL eco. Time to take 50% out again soon. Reason why I am keeping half a bag it’s because I want exposure to MEME plays and I think that this can have a good run when the true bull returns.
I think 0.6 soon or I’ll slowly accumulate at lower levels.

Just trading the charts/sentiments on this meme play. Goal is to accumulate so much as possible.

Another shitcoin that I got in around 0.0038. Gib 7-8 and I’ll be completely out. Just riding on the AI narrative.

This AI narrative is dumb imo. No fundamentals. Zero. Nada. But still mooned almost 2-3x across the board.

Sound like a broken record, but there is no fundamentals be it in tradfi or crypto. The only way to be on the right side, is to visualise HOW people would view these “fundamentals”. How they view will affect how they react and these collective actions will bring about a chain reaction effect.

Meme coin, 0 IQ play imo. Eventually will moon. The only sector that has shown to moon over and over again in Crypto. Since doge time if I’m not wrong. So in the past 2-3 cycles, meme coins have always been part of it. Small sample size as Crypto is still relatively new but prolly enough to make an educated guess.

Most gains came from following the narrative in spot and chill. So far, I’ve done fairly well. So next step is to not screw up my profits and return it back. This is where TA comes in. Identify your invalidation and work your way from there.

Atb anons.

Human psych never change

How many were screaming for $1-2 $SOL? When it was at one of the key support levels?

Sold half (took out my capital) and reinvested it again. Goal is to accumulate more on this token. Managed to increase my stack by almost 50%. Happy with how I’ve been playing with smol size lolol

Truth to be told, never look down on smol sizes. If you have the curiosity and drive, you’ll still be able to seek out wonderful opportunities and compound on it. Managed to compound my trading size till 2k USD. Started with only $50. Truth to be told, most of it came from spot plays and not leverage plays.

Easy to be SLed if you’re into futures. Unless you’re shorting, I think a smarter play would be in spot instead. Just my 2 cents.

I wouldn’t be surprise to see this kick off tbh. With Andre back. Only a matter of time before people start paying attention here.
Where I’ll be interested in $WOO. Eventually imo. Would play it as how I have been playing recently. 2x & I’ll sell my initial and wait for better prices. Simple play.. just requires tremendous patience. Draft out a plan and follow! Make it your edge.

SOL heating up..

Don’t understand why so many are bearish on SOL LOL.

Crazy how quickly things change in Crypto eh?
Thanks for the eco play SOL 🤝 will be taking profits when this 2x, let’s see if I get it

$BONK going wild on Sol’s eco too.

I think this move still has got some legs. Too many are shorting SOL.

Short squeeze incoming reeeeee
Alil higher pls??
There it is..
Took out my capital, leaving the rest to moon kek

Alt coins

Tag $1.5 and I might be dipping my toes in

I like how PYR is still building despite current market sentiments. Would like to get a bag when the right time comes. No need to rush.

Started to lightly degen DCA on a meme coin LOL. Gonna be a part of my “forget that it exist” portfolio. Either moon or doom. #Dogcoins4lyfe

Pure gambling on this. Only doing this because history has shown time and time again that dogs coins will always moon at the last phase of a bull market.

Not sure if it’ll happen again in the next bull cycle, but probability lies with it happening again.

Not gonna bother trying to catch the bottom for dog coins because when it moons, it’s almost impossible to get on board LOL. I rather get on board earlier than later.

Ye, exactly my point. Don’t be too greedy. Put your entire crypto net worth into ETH and multiply it by 10x. If it’s 10k, you would have reached a new net worth of 100k by absolutely doing nothing and just buying ETH.

So my take is 70-80% ETH and 20% for a coin with good hype and “fundamentals”. Once you start including alts into your portfolio, an element of uncertainty comes in hence you’ll assume more risk. But it is what is. Risk and reward are intimately correlated. Higher risk = higher reward. Simple as that.

Looking closely at this too

With FTX saga, could another CEX alt take over the realm and compete with Binance? This is the narrative that WOO is sitting on. Huge potential I must say.

0.05 level would be the perfect place to scoop up some, pls gib. 30x potential to the top.

Can’t deny that WOO is looking more attractive compared to PYR. Let’s see how it goes. Accumulating ETH still remains the priority for now.

Until then! Atb anons and early happy new year!

Good old days

Remember those days where metaverse coins were making an ez 2-3x within 2-3days? Or when FTM ecosystem was making 10-20x across the board? Meme coins mooning without any fundamentals?

Now remember the pain where BTC dropped from 69k till 16k and all our fav alts dipped 90-100%.

Now consolidate all your thoughts process, sieve through every single event and how you felt. Why didn’t you take profits? Why didn’t you go on defensive mode?

Does it help to form some sort of structure or objectives where you can follow in the future?

If so, what is the best way to position yourself to enjoy the best returns? Are you still bullish on your alts? If so, why? What is your thesis?

Fundamentals in Crypto is BS imo.

I was wrong.

My stance has changed because I have expanded my knowledge and understood just alittle more compared to 6 months ago. Still lots of room for improvement. But wouldn’t change a single thing.

This bear market has been painful but it has also taught me many valuable lessons. Nothing beats cash. There’s no difference in tradfi and crypto. There will always be market markers and people that can move the market. Key is to follow the flow.

The only way to make money is to follow the trend/flow unless you have enough capital to disrupt the trend. It’s always wise to follow the trend.

Gone were the days where mega tradfi companies can take advantage of normies like us. GameStop saga has been a clear example. The power of many normies combined can be pretty lethal. Attention and identifying narrative plus taking profits is really what you need.

Identify your edge and keep rinsing it. It’s normal if you’re losing money when learning how to trade in these nasty conditions. Once you’ve hone these skills, an average trader/investor that takes healthy profits can make decent profits.

I’ve always thought that DCAing is a decent option. Tbh, I’m still applying this approach. But I would prefer the dynamic DCA approach. Helps to preserve alil more capital while still keeping some skin in the game.

I would suspect that mid 2023 will bring on beautiful buying opportunities. Mid 3 figures ETH remains the dream. If we do get it, y’all should know what to do.

Buying ETH is literally like buying an index on steroids. This could very well be the last market cycle with 10-20x. As more tradfi companies comes in to participate, the harder it will be to extract money from the market.

So put in what you can afford to lose, should be a comfortable amount where you can still enjoy the perks of a moon scenario.

Lengthy post, prolly will stop here. Merry Christmas anons! 🎄🎄

Meme trendline on SPX

Would history repeat again? Or would SPX finally break this? I still think that the probabilities are to the downside.

I think if you’re up on anything in this bearish environment, you’re winning.

Been chilling alil on this. Would like to get in with more size when the time comes. With PMI rolling over and job unemployment rates still on the low side. The feds still have room to remove liquidity and maintain their hawkish stance. Nevertheless, this brings great buying opportunities.

Send it down bears, I’ll be waiting. When unemployment rate rises & people need food over holding on to their beloved stocks. That’s when you know bottom is close. Even tho my framework has been flashing some sort of possible bottom given the macro sentiments. I’m being alil cautious here because the charts have not been to my liking.

I think probabilities are still to the downside for now.

Still think that we have at least 6 more months to go before a possible “bottom” or macro accumulation phase starts. So Q2 next year prolly before I start aggressively buying ETH. Master the cycle, this is your opportunity.

Don’t let your past failure cloud your vision. Look at datas objectively. Make an informed decision based on it.

3 digit eth would be a beaut. Can’t wait for it kek. When the bull returns & liquidity is rich. ETH NFT eco goes wild again. With their deflationary model, I would believe that 10k eth isn’t impossible. We shall see.

Not so meme after all eh?