Don’t understand why so many are bearish on SOL LOL.
$BONK going wild on Sol’s eco too.
I think this move still has got some legs. Too many are shorting SOL.
SOL heating up..
L1
Nuke city & first DCA
These are the only funds I’ve left in FTX. So if funds can’t be recovered, I’ll take a small scratch. My plan was to start accumulating SOL anywhere below $20.
So ye, just sticking to the plan. Still think that it could drop lower down. Next one will be $13-15, then I’ll reassess the reaction from there.
This is just a small % of what I plan to DCA. So, I’ll take it slow and slowly spread it out. But 28 SOL is a good start. Helps to prevent any sort of FOMO when you’ve a small bag.
Anyway, this FTX saga’s really tragic. Hope those that have a huge sum inside FTX would be able to somehow recover majority of your positions.
Moving forward, will be looking forward for lower prices. Stay calm, have a plan and execute it. ATB anons.
Why $SOL?
Pret hard to understand, basically SOL’s blockchain architecture is based on proof of history (POH) instead of proof of work or stake (POW or POS). Honestly, there is barely any difference between between POH and POS except POH has a time component in it.
Let’s move on to why I am bullish on $SOL and believe that it will make a new ATH in the next run.
- One thing that $SOL has always bragged about is it’s ability to withstand 710k transaction per second. To put that in context, ETH 2.0 is only able capable of scaling to 100k transaction per second.
- Another thing that $SOL has been popular for is the extremely cheap gas fees. Honestly, peanuts compared to $ETH. I have used the $SOL chain many times and the most expensive transaction I have done was 50 cents?
- Solana has a deflationary issuance schedule with the first year being 8% and decreasing until it reaches 1.5% after a decade and from that point onwards, it will stay that way.
- Now the point above can be quite misleading but basically it means that SOL is still inflationary however the extent of how inflationary will decrease with time. Additionally, only a small % of transaction fees are burnt. So, whether or not this seemingly reasonable inflation cycle could catch up and erode SOL’s value remains to be seen.
- Disinflation seems to be the right word to use here
4. Phone
5. SBF
6. Anatoly Yakovenko
7. Sol NFT space
8. Types of projects building on it
- Honestly, there are many good projects on it such as Aurory, Star Atlas, Genopets, Okaybears and etc.
- Given, how I am bullish on the gamefi space and seeing how many hyped gamefi projects using SOL as their preferred blockchain says alot
- https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/09/01/helium-developers-propose-shifting-network-to-solana-blockchain-for-faster-speeds/ > Another thing to take note as well with Helium moving to SOL, I believe that many other projects will eventually follow suit.
Now that I’ve mentioned all the points on why I am bullish on $SOL in the long term, let’s talk about some drawbacks
- Centralization: Believe that many of you are aware of how quickly the SOL team was able to halt all transactions on SOL during it’s downtime and many were worried about how centralization may affect the supposedly “decentralized” nature of crypto
- Frequent outages
3. Occasionally slow transactions on SOL
- As I have been using the chain for awhile, I completely understand when people complain about slow transactions
Now let’s move on to adding new perspective on these drawbacks
- I believe that centralization is important initially especially for a project in it’s stages of infancy to keep the system running, if it is truly decentralized then who’s gonna fix any underlying issues with it lolol
- I’m sure many are not pleased with the frequent outages and slow transactions but many other alt L1 are facing the same issues as well. (FTM’s user experience sucks big time tbh)
- Sure, many other alt L1 blockchain can brag about being better than SOL and etc, but it’s all in theory. Put them on high load and we see what happens.
- Another question that comes to mind is that, would they be able to gain sufficient traction so that they will be able to test out their system when load is high? Doubt so.
- But SOL has managed to do it time and time again hence the frequent outages in initial stages. With time, things should improve. Even ETH had significant issues initially, I believe the 2016 ETH hack would sound familiar to some. But look at how far it has come.
Now given that I have talked about SOL’s beautiful fundamentals, let’s move on to TA
- Would like to see a nice compression between the 12/21 EMA which increases the probability of an extended accumulation phase
- I believe somewhere in late Q4, early Q1 would present a beautiful buying opportunity on SOL, so please preserve your capital until the time comes..
- When it comes, I will be shilling LOL defo..
This is how you should analyze your projects fundamentally, find a bullish narrative
- Then use TA to guide your entry and exit point
- Honestly, imo, SOL is an easy 5-10x play LOL. If it ever runs up like how ETH did, it is at least a 20x. But don’t get too ahead of yourself first.
Then the 50% will be going to Nikko AM REIT (CFA) or STI ETF for long term hold. As simple as that really.. Then continue slowly laddering out. To make this method worthwhile, you have to bet big LOL. If not it would not be worth the effort at all.
Don’t think that it will be wise to put your Crypto gains into SP500 given how correlated it is and SP500 is still pretty darn volatile for an ETF. Pull up CFA and STI ETF and you will get what I mean.
The best time to buy VOO is literally at the present moment. Don’t screw it up.
This is an extremely lengthy post, so take your time to digest really. Thats all for today, ATB!
Accumulation phase for $SOL?
Additionally BTC’s weekly BB falls at 15k and ETH falls around 900ish. So, the pressure is still to the downside for now. If BTC nukes, what makes you think that SOL will hold up?
Like I have said many times, now it’s the time to start looking for beautiful opportunities to accumulate.
Whatever it is, anything below $20 and I will be a buyer. Imo.. even though this recession has caused many unfortunate events e.g. Credit Suisse fud, 3AC collapse, Luna collapse, Netflix nuking and etc.
This is a generational learning opportunity for those who remain curious and dont stop learning. It’s not an everyday that you get to experience and learn from an actual recession.
The last time was 13/14 years ago, 2008/2009 financial crisis. I believe those that went through this are prolly still scarred till this day. But look at those who kept learning and didn’t give up. Or those that were analyzing key data and made a high probability trade.. (The Big Short)
I think in my upcoming post, I will prolly talk about good indicators that one could use that may indicate that momentum is flattening and possibly shifting to the upside.
Until then, ATB anons!
What alts would I be accumulating soon?
Transitioned from being a stubborn “bull” to reluctant bear. But I think that many alts are entering into early stages of accumulation.
To my own surprise, the alts that I’ll be accumulating wouldn’t be adding onto my long term bags. I’ll be holding them. Believe that you know what I’m in.
Throughout early 2023 > 2024, I’ll prolly only accumulate 1 alt. Either $PYR or $SOL.
Think the 2 links above summarises things better than I would. Personally, I lean more towards $SOL, I was reluctant to buy SOL initially due to its high mcap and also I rode it from 100ish to 240ish. So I’m happy with that.
But seeing how they have been progressing in the bear markets makes it hard to neglect their progress.. sure they have their own set of issues, e.g. centralised network, breaking down, yada yada yada. At the end of day, ask yourself.. are there any other projects pushing as hard as them? Coming up with marketing gimmicks (SOL phone) just to make Crypto more accessible for non-crypto folks.
I think that it is only a matter of time before they return their all time high. Given their NFT traction and the top class devs building on their blockchain. (Aurory, Genopets and etc)
Moving to $PYR, another L1 riding on the metaverse hype. Tbh, $PYR has a HUGE potential to grow given that it’s only at 80-90m.. if this takes off, it can easily be the next 50-60x tbh.
So in terms of R/R, $PYR stands out. However in terms of adoption, $SOL still stands first.
In terms of accessibility, it’s much easier and accessible to get $SOL instead of $PYR. If y’all have a Gemini account, you can start to accumulate $SOL there. Honestly, easy work. Just wire money in and repeat your weekly/monthly DCA when the time comes.
Whereas for $PYR, you’ve to transfer funds to Binance or Kucoin for you to be able to buy it. Quite a lot of work but worth it for a 10-50x imo.
Honestly if you would like something with higher probability then betting on $SOL would be a smart choice. If you want higher return but lower probability then go for $PYR.
In terms of returns, $PYR (10-50x imo), $SOL (5-10x)
Tough choice but leaning more towards $SOL at this point of time all because of their devs activity and traction. Tbh, 5-10x tho seems “pathetic” in Crypto sense, it’s still an extremely good return. Put 5k and you’ll get 25k. Then take out 90%, and put into something safer like REITS, you’ll receiving a decent alternative income for the rest of your life.. (That’s if they continue giving their dividends), so do check their track records too.
Don’t aim for moonshots all the time, aim for something with higher probability but lower returns then repeat the whole process.
And for you to make the best out of $SOL, you must bet big. I would say at least high 4 figures or low 5 figures if possible..
Atb anons
Back on $FTM
Nice looking BTC chart. I’m in since 0.38ish and I’ll be adding if the market is kind enough to give me 0.37 😉
This is just a catch up trade, nothing else. I do think that alt L1s will be next to run. Could be wrong. But I’m willing to give it a go. Will cut if invalidated.
Solana and FTX
Very interesting clip I must say. SBF thoroughly explains that end goal of FTT which is something that I like. I don’t think any other exchanges have tried integrating other currency or stocks on their platform, even Binance if I’m not mistaken. So, if FTT succeeds and manages to gain traction not only from Crypto enthusiast but regular tradfi folks too, imagine how wild it’ll be. The inflow of liquidity would be endless. (Ok, I’m exaggerating but this is defo bullish for FTT token as there are benefits for staking their tokens, gonna put a SS here so y’all can read through and digest)
So yeah, it’s hard not to be bullish on FTT. But I would not be accumulating at current levels. TA matters in Crypto, the market is very unforgiving to those that get in at wrong prices.
Moving onto Solana mobile phone, not sure how feasible it’ll be as the smartphone industry is so competitive with just a few big iconic brands competing against each other. Sure it’s a good way to attract normies into Crypto but it might not be able to gain traction. I mean logically, I would still choose iPhone over Solana phone anyday. But hey, who knows what may happen in the far future.
I would accumulate SOL if I’m not invested in $AURY tbh. I don’t like to have too much exposure into one ecosystem. Much rather spread it out. Having said that, this is a degen approach because SOL is more likely to survive compared to AURY, but if SOL moon x10 in the far future, imagine how far AURY can go. This is an asymmetrical bet imo. High R/R. Let’s see how it goes.
Hope that you’ve enjoyed this short summary. ATB anons!
FTM update
Sold half of my FTM at a loss. Been questioning my thesis recently a lot recently. I just don’t see any fundamental drivers for FTM currently unlike SOL where there’s still meaningful NFT activity going on despite current market sentiments.
Additionally, the FTM-TOMB depeg and the blind moonboi community has further accelerated my decision to cut loss. Could be a bad move and I might regret it but oh well. Cope alil, move on.
Despite multiple network issues at SOL, I still see a massive potential for SOL to go head to head with Eth in the far future. Every protocol will have its own set of issues during its infancy. Give it some time to prove itself.
Might not be getting SOL as my Aurory exposure has given me sufficient exposure to the SOL ecosystem imo. It may not survive this bear, but my thesis for Aurory is still intact. As I’ve said many times, despite current market sentiments, they’re still pushing major updates. Given my thesis on gamefi, I’m willing to give this a shot because the upside is more than the downside at this point of time.
Other reason why I sold half of my FTM at a loss, it’s because I see better opportunities at this point of time.
Don’t blindly hold onto your bags anons, keep questioning your thesis. Once broken, don’t be afraid to sell at a loss.
Follow liquidity like what I’ve said previously. I’ve decided to long AVAX to hedge my KNC short. Any profits from AVAX will be used to add onto my KNC short.
Sorry if you’ve gotten into FTM because of me. Pls always DYOR, whatever I share here isn’t FA. This platform serve as a reflection for myself instead of a signal group. Atb anons
Lesson learnt from this: Always take profits REGARDLESS of how bullish you are on a project. Always take healthy profits!!!
What a nuke
What a nuke on Luna lolol. All it takes is a bear market and the orange coin descend to show whose king.
Luna’s main bullish thesis was all about decentralised stablecoin. But now that this narrative has failed (at least temporarily), of course you’ll see prices nuke lolol.
So if you think that your asset would never fail. Think again. Be fluid and dynamic. Again, my portfolio took a beating. But I believe that this is necessary pain before gains. You’ll never be able to time the market, so stop wishing that or you’ll always fail.
Look at BTC pairs and see which alts are holding up well. Read up more about it, build conviction on those alts & BTFD. Then repeat.
I’m just being patient and chilling really. Weekly DCA is so much fun during times like this where I can adjust and DCA more.
When the time comes for metaverse narrative again, confident that WILD will be able to compete with top tier projects. 0.1-0.3 is where I would be looking kek.
Time to head back to bed, Crypto really messes up your sleep cycle lolol. Atb anons.
USN
All eyes on NEAR currently, many L1s trying to imitate Luna’s UST. Would they succeed? Who knows. But NEAR is a good bet imo.
This dude explains it better than me. Enjoy this thread!
If you’re looking for a strong and sound project, defo don’t give this a miss. Personally, I’m sticking with FTM.
I may sound stubborn, but when I research about something. I dig deep, build conviction and I stick with it until it’s no longer sound to do so.
I may not be the best at TA, but I know that I’m decent with research, understanding and building a thesis around a project.
The only way to make it here is to form your own narrative and thesis. Don’t be swayed by unnecessary noises. Be patient. If you want the multiples then you’ll need to be patient.
Market has been crabbing for almost 3 months now, a huge movement will come soon. Up or down, things will be much clearer when the time comes. But it’s sooner than you think imo.
PhysioKid 