Market sentiments (Objective)

Pret crazy to see Crypto “decoupling” in the short term and seeing Pentoshi being a mini bull. (Mad respect to this champ)

But it kinda make sense for Crypto to be rallying alil given that US30Y and US10Y went down alil. What doesn’t fall into place here is that SP500 hasn’t been responding the way it should be.

There it is..

Having said that, it still doesn’t make sense for Crypto to be rallying as it is usually correlated to SP500 and SP500/Crypto/stocks are inversely correlated with US10Y/30Y. So, objectively going forward any pumps are still for shorting imo.

Look at the trajectory of both uptrends for US bonds.. explosive and unforgiving. Doesn’t look like it’s stopping anytime soon. Hence there is a good chance that SP500 may eventually revisit high 2000ish if this continues.

Smash through this support and 2956 will be next..
Interesting video..

If Credit Suisse crashes like Lehmann, it is gonna be really gruesome imo. SP500 and Crypto prolly slips through any existing support like butter if this happens.

So after pointing out objectively all the real concerns, why am I still heavily adding onto SP500? I strongly believe that in times of greatest fear, comes the greatest opportunities. This is where asymmetrical bet lies.

SP500 right at major support, a level where I marked out 8 months back, so of course I feel the fear that everyone is feeling, I am only human. But after laying out all the objective factors in comparison to opportunities, I would say that one should feel euphoric at current prices esp on strong assets. So, being objective allows me to shift my focus from fear to euphoria. And tbh, the lower SP500, BTC, ETH, SOL and etc goes, the more euphoric I get.

Madness
Upside vs downside: Just another POV
Just another POV too

DCA at the right time (downwards) at logical support zones to bring your average entry down then perhaps you could enjoy a 2-5x upside.

Q4 2021 till Q2 2023 may present some beautiful buying opportunities so preserve some of your capital until then..

;>

Patience is key (Sp500)

Post on Feb 9th 2022, a lot has changed since then , even my charts lolol
Marked this level out since Feb (8 months ago)

I’ve been patiently waiting for this. 8 long beautiful months for me to save up more ammos and hit hard when the time comes.

I’m ready, let’s get this. 🤝

Have a scheduled SOL post coming up prolly next month, discussing FA and TA on it. So do keep a look out. Atb anons.

CFA (Nikko AM REITS) etf

If you’re a lazy investor and dont wanna pick your own stocks but still want exposure to the general REITs market, then ETF is the answer. I believe that there are a few reits ETF out there e.g. Lion-phillip.

One of the more popular one these days would be SYFE’s Reits + portfolio. I believe Kevin (Turtleinvestor) has covered why he chose to use SYFE’s platform for his REIT’s investment. Check it out if you’re interested.

https://www.turtleinvestor.net/syfe-reit-updated-review-after-1-year-5-reasons-why-i-will-keep-using-it/

So, I am not going to go into the fundamental perspective of which REIT etf to pick. But in terms of expense ratio wise, CFA (0.5%) is the lowest if I’ve not mistaken.

Think that he covers the fundamental perspective much better than myself. I am just going into TA.
I’m just gonna zoom into TA and touch each of them briefly.
Eventually this shall revisit $7 imo, so short term down-trend but as you can see, it has been going up since 2018, so normal for it to retrace. But currently it is below the 12/21 EMA, so until the 12/21 EMA compresses, this will continue to go down. But given the outlook of the chart. I think this is a good dip to buy imo. Clear long term uptrend trajectory.
Generally still in a nice uptrend, and 12/21 EMA compressing nicely.. Nothing to be worried about atm.
Looking good too, good dip to buy imo. Still resting about support, only thing that looks alil worrying is the cross of 12/21 EMA. But until it loses support, it is still a good dip to buy.
I expect this to slowly head down towards target eventually.
Same thing.. Clear uptrend. Only worrying thing is the crossed over of 12/21 EMA. This chart looks like pre-BTC tower fall imo.
Clear uptrend, so dips are still for buying imo..
Same thing
Looks like crap LOL, eventually the blue line imo. Lucky it’s only 3% of the entire CFA.

Despite many of these charts being in a uptrend, there is a real possibility that the following chart (below) can happen because the 12/21 EMA has crossed in almost all the chart.

Yes, this can happen to many of the charts above. So the downside risk is real for REITS and still present imo. The worrying part is the 12/21 EMA crossing like what I’ve shared..

Having said that, REITS are a completely different asset compared to growth stocks (SP500 falls here too despite being an ETF). So, the trajectory of market structure may not follow the a typical growth stock pattern. So, it may still continue to go up.

There’s a reason why it hasn’t dipped like a typical growth stock chart e.g. Meta/BTC/Netflix and etc. During times like this, when people stay risk off from growth stocks, REITS can be a good place to transfer your wealth to. I mean, slower market movement coupled with good dividends sounds like a good place to hide.

Now.. moving on to CFA

Looks horrible LOL.. Tbh, I’ve been DCAing into this w/o looking at the chart. I have been doing this for a few years now. After the covid crash, it is clear it has not been doing that well. Still in a clear downtrend. Looking like 0.86 level will be revisited eventually again.

But honestly, I am in this for the long term and a ETF is generally alot more stable compared to picking individual stocks. So yeah, I am just going to “blindly” keep DCAing into. I see lower prices as a good opportunity to accumulate more. I do think that this will eventually go back up again given the uptrend trajectory of the charts (sub parts of this ETF) that I have shared above.

Even the STI ETF chart looks better imo.

Tbh, I am big lover of REITS and I would like to eventually accumulate at least 7 figures worth. That would make up to at least 40k per annual. Passive income at it’s best.

But due to the slow growth trajectory, the plan now is to go for something with higher growth potential e.g. Crypto/SP500 and then dump it into REITS in the far future. That’s the biggest goal. Of course, I would be dividing it into Nikko AM reits ETF and Nikko STI ETF. (I dont like being overly exposed to one type of dividend play stocks)

Going forward, my crypto post will start to be alil more boring given that retail money are slowly leaving the space. This is when you start to research and buy a shitload of your convicted alts before unloading during the bull market.

That’s all I have for today. Long post. All the best!




Nikko AM REITS

I’ve a scheduled post coming up regarding REITS.. A different view from your usual fundamental stuff. It was prepped 2-3 weeks ago? All I can say it embrace for an upcoming impact if you’re invested in this.

This does not look good at all LOL. 0.86 next.. Whatever it is, risk-off behavior is seriously affecting the whole market. I will continue to DCA into CFA. But I really don’t like how crappy this chart looks LOL. No linear progression at all.

This is one that will stay as a fundamental play. The lower it goes, the better for me. Hard to go wrong with an ETF. Esp with all the top companies in there. This will eventually bounce. Only DCA-ing a small amount into it every month. VOO will remain the largest tradfi play regardless. R/R is the best with VOO.

All the best anons. Hope that yall will enjoy the upcoming REIT post!

There it is… (29/09/2022)

China market and 2801

I think these videos explains the situation at China better than myself. I dont claim to be an expert or anything especially when it comes to politics or stocks.

Brief summary

  1. 70% of China’s wealth is tied up in real estate
  2. The real estate industry holds approximately 1/3 of the entire China economy (Which is huge imo)
  3. So if real estate collapses there, the effect will be huge no doubt.. “Evergrande”

Lots and lots of FUD going around for China currently and unfortunately financial transparency is lacking here. So the only thing that is transparent here are the charts..

Random scribbles

You really dont wanna see them losing the $18 level or it’s gonna take a long long time for it to recover given how the market structure has broken.

How you should invest in ETF is defo different from your shit-ass alt coins. This is where you can build unwavering conviction because you know that the probability of the China economy going to zero is pretty damn low.

It is more probable that it will go much higher than current levels 2-3 decades from now. So, patience really pays here.

If you are a “lazy” investor then ETFs play would be ideal for you. Tbh, I started out as “lazy investor” hence my stocks portfolio are really lazy and simple but effective. I know all the ETFs that I hold will only appreciate in the future. REITS, VOO and 2801 (more speculative)..

The reason why 2801 is down so much would be due to the huge real estate allocation relative to their economy and the downfall of many China tech stocks.

But this should not come as a surprise lolol, look at how much tech stocks have mooned, only a matter of time before they drop like grapes, nothing goes up in a straight line.

Not forgetting NIO too

The only country currently that is capable of competing with US.. Only time will tell if I am right on this conviction. Let’s review this post again sometime in the future. (Maybe a few decades later?)

What alts would I be accumulating soon?

Transitioned from being a stubborn “bull” to reluctant bear. But I think that many alts are entering into early stages of accumulation.

To my own surprise, the alts that I’ll be accumulating wouldn’t be adding onto my long term bags. I’ll be holding them. Believe that you know what I’m in.

Throughout early 2023 > 2024, I’ll prolly only accumulate 1 alt. Either $PYR or $SOL.

Think the 2 links above summarises things better than I would. Personally, I lean more towards $SOL, I was reluctant to buy SOL initially due to its high mcap and also I rode it from 100ish to 240ish. So I’m happy with that.

But seeing how they have been progressing in the bear markets makes it hard to neglect their progress.. sure they have their own set of issues, e.g. centralised network, breaking down, yada yada yada. At the end of day, ask yourself.. are there any other projects pushing as hard as them? Coming up with marketing gimmicks (SOL phone) just to make Crypto more accessible for non-crypto folks.

I think that it is only a matter of time before they return their all time high. Given their NFT traction and the top class devs building on their blockchain. (Aurory, Genopets and etc)

Moving to $PYR, another L1 riding on the metaverse hype. Tbh, $PYR has a HUGE potential to grow given that it’s only at 80-90m.. if this takes off, it can easily be the next 50-60x tbh.

So in terms of R/R, $PYR stands out. However in terms of adoption, $SOL still stands first.

In terms of accessibility, it’s much easier and accessible to get $SOL instead of $PYR. If y’all have a Gemini account, you can start to accumulate $SOL there. Honestly, easy work. Just wire money in and repeat your weekly/monthly DCA when the time comes.

Whereas for $PYR, you’ve to transfer funds to Binance or Kucoin for you to be able to buy it. Quite a lot of work but worth it for a 10-50x imo.

Honestly if you would like something with higher probability then betting on $SOL would be a smart choice. If you want higher return but lower probability then go for $PYR.

In terms of returns, $PYR (10-50x imo), $SOL (5-10x)

Tough choice but leaning more towards $SOL at this point of time all because of their devs activity and traction. Tbh, 5-10x tho seems “pathetic” in Crypto sense, it’s still an extremely good return. Put 5k and you’ll get 25k. Then take out 90%, and put into something safer like REITS, you’ll receiving a decent alternative income for the rest of your life.. (That’s if they continue giving their dividends), so do check their track records too.

Don’t aim for moonshots all the time, aim for something with higher probability but lower returns then repeat the whole process.

And for you to make the best out of $SOL, you must bet big. I would say at least high 4 figures or low 5 figures if possible..

Atb anons

What’s the next big narrative after ETH merge?

If you want a “safe” 3-5x, honestly this is the answer. Simple $BTC, nothing too fancy..

This would honestly be a dream.. An absolute gift for those who are patient. I am shifting my mindset, from a downtrading market to potentially accumulating before the next cycle. All I have been doing is learning how to trade and analyze charts, so I can make the best out of the next cycle.

100k BTC isn’t out of the question, just a matter of when imo.. So I would like to at least own 1 BTC and accumulate BTC around 11-13k. That would be around 30% of my total PF. But I think it is worth the R/R at this point of time. So, if it comes, I will be bidding and DCAing throughout 2023 till 2024 BTC halving. I would be working at that point of time so accumulating some wouldnt be an issue, but if it comes now, the max I can go is only 1 unfortunately.. A small amount compared to many other financial folks out there.

Torn between ETH or BTC, but I think narrative wise going forward, BTC has a stronger edge. Nothing concrete yet, but I am open to accumulating either one. Leaning more towards ETH out of love for L1 but it’s important to detach your emotions from investing/trading.

These 2 years will have a strong impact on your net worth in the far future, so pick and wisely.. You will be rewarded in the end anons.

Eth merge.. sell the news?

For those that managed to catch the bottom for ETH, I think a few days before the merge would be a good time to sell esp if you have managed to 2x your capital.

Dont be a blind moon boy..

Look at the market structure and think again about holding any positions. No idea where the bottom will be, but if $740 comes, I will be bidding. Slow and steady..

This is where you gotta build up your trading psychology, go with probabilities. Given the structure of the chart above, what are the chances of ETH mooning past ATHs? Unlikely imo..

Like it or not, if you’re in Crypto. You must learn how to trade or you will always be at the losing end. This isn’t an index fund, you can’t apply DCA here and I learnt it the hard way.

I suspect there will be one more hard nuke from here, will prolly be a catastrophic one. Decimation I reckon. Let’s see.

Bidding when the time comes.. Hopefully $1, thats what ill be aiming for.
Leaving this here, will reassess again after accumulating and waiting for 2-3 years. The next metaverse hype will be wild.

Profitable trading “so far”

Been awhile since I’ve updated my trading plans, but I’ve managed to compound the initial $50 till $400 USD. So I’m pretty pleased with it. Of course Ive lost almost all but managed to make a comeback and have been tweaking my trading plan ever since.

So far, I’ve only been trading one type candle stick pattern. Literally just one LOL. I’ll prolly come up with another post for that talking about my strategy because it’ll be a fairly dry topic.

My plan forward is really simple and small, to generate $50-$100 per week if possible for my own spending LOL. Treat myself or my close ones to a cheap meal or whatever.

When I get more comfortable with trading in bigger size (4-5 figures) on low leverage, then the weekly generated income will prolly be larger. But the sole focus now is only 50-100 per week as this is the amount that I believe is possible at my current novice level. That’s all I want for now, not aiming for any unrealistic moonshot. Consistency is what I strive for.

Although I’ve improved emotionally in terms of trading, there’s more to work on and the learning process will never end because every situation is unique on its own.

This post shall serve as a reflection to always remain humble and hungry for knowledge even when in profit. I know that my profits are small and pathetic compared to many others, but I believe with time and a lot of effort eventually I’ll get there.