Same thoughts. Those that don’t manage their risk well should be taught a lesson by the market.
Repeated many times but risk management is key if you wanna survive in the game. Without it, you’ll get rekted sooner rather than later.
I suspect that there could be a contagion effect similar to what we saw during FTX debacle. Where other big names start to crack one by one.
I think we should all be thankful that these events are pretty unlikely in SG given the strict regulations and scrutiny under MAS.
Going back, I do think that companies that don’t manage their risk should be punished or many others will just follow suit. How many times can you save them? Eventually, resources will be exhausted. Vicious cycle.
And when the eventual crash comes, it’ll be far worse than expected. My take is don’t let it snowball. Recipe for disaster.. if one topples, let it be. Move on. Focus on the next logical step which is how can we prevent this from happening in the future.
SVB, Lehman brothers collapse etc. All these are the underlying reason for the birth of Bitcoin. Satoshi’s vision. Despite me being optimistic about blockchain technology. I don’t think that it’ll ever replace fiat imo.
Just my 2 cents.. I think it’s more likely that BTC remains as a speculative asset class. But eventually the volatility will reduce significantly. Something like the tradfi market where 5-10% moves are considered significant.
So take this opportunity to learn and capitalise on this volatility and inefficiency. I’m still learning to date & it’s a PVP market honestly. But eventually with a framework, things should get “easier” or rather you become more adaptable.
Learn during the bear and reap the rewards during bull. LFGGGG
Those that stuck around and learnt more during 2022 and 2023, will reap the benefits when the bull inevitably returns.
When the blue box region comes for SPX, I’ll be emptying the clip. Whether or not we nuke further. Remains to be seen. But at that point of time, the rewards outweighs the risk. When and if it comes, it’s time to forget about risk and worry about capturing upside returns. (Those that read market cycles will find this familiar)
Key is to stay objective with your system and don’t deviate from it. I am looking for potential accumulation zones in the next 3-9 months if an opportunity presents itself. Like what I have mentioned previously, I am not bullish yet but I do think that the time to buy is really really close.
The time to be courageous and start buying is pret close imo. 3-6 months out maybe? But I think somewhere between mid-late this year would be a fantastic time to buy. I have a few alts in mind. Fundamentals aside, hype is important in this space. I do think that the alts that I plan to accumulate will eventually gain good traction. That’s my belief at least.
Except for those micro caps, I haven’t been putting on-ramping anything significant to buy big yet.
I know these news can be daunting. But I do think that this is necessary pain given how crazy things ran previously. SPX 2x from covid lows lolol. So when credit becomes tighter in the presence of sticky inflation. It’s gonna hurt of course. Many cracks will start to show. Who knows how many more black swans event will come?
The market is truly a fascinating place made up from so many different individuals with different response.
But continue to have skin in the game. Don’t give up. If you are still here with me reading this post. Know that this too shall pass. Eventually greed will return and your portfolio will start to show green if you keep buying at the lows. Then that is when you will remember this exact moment and start to plan your TP targets or exit targets.
2024-2025 prolly? Who knows. But good probability since BTC halving is around that period.
Those people that were screaming the bottom is in since the start of year, take note of it. Now you know who to avoid listening to. Be objective. Wash those out and only include those with valuable information in your circle.
I bought a significant bag of VOO at around 320 back in Nov-Dec I think. But I reckon that prices will eventually retract back to 320 and prolly 300. Buttttt, all these are just probabilities. May or may not happen. If it happens, I will load up significantly again & up my DCA amount too.
Before I end off: Just wanna say this, things may seem dark and depressing now. But really. Keep striving and looking forward. Keep DCAing into good stuff like e.g. VOO. Hard to go wrong really & you will have yourself to thank 2-3 years from now.
& Keep a significant amount of your networth off Crypto, as you never know what will happen next.. FTX, Luna and even your stables are not stable lolol. Only put in what you are willing to part to. Then those $$ that you are willing to part. Go degen on it. Explore different chains, meet like minded people. Interact with them and most importantly learn and enjoy the process.
If you want the multiples with a small capital then you HAVE to go to the other side of risk curve. On chain coins. No other way about it, but be prepared to write off this amount. Either moon or doom tbh.
Not trying to make you euphoric. But that’s where the 10-100x lies. I have seen it happen multiple times but didn’t make any efforts as it was too troublesome. This time I didnt make the same mistake and I managed to break-even whatever that I have lost previously. “Unrekted” lolol.
So I am back to the starting point after tremendous effort. It was not easy tbh but defo possible given the right market conditions. Which is clearly not now. Those that are interested in these alts, you know how to get to me. Not gonna shill it publicly or many would get rekted like how I did previously.
If you wanna stay safe. Go for BTC/ETH and VOO. The boomer play. DCA.. Very unlikely that you will fail. ATB.
Think that this power of 3 concept is pret interesting. Accumulation > manipulation and expansion. Really can be applied to any timeframe. But I think for max gains, this should be applied in a higher timeframe context.. (Takes a lot of patience tho)
Many coins are breaking out currently. Personally just following the trend/flow on alts. Nothing long term yet. Maybe just 2 (free ride for one as I have removed my capital, waiting for another free ride).
I think the power of 3 concept is really simple but a powerful tool that one can use. Accumulate during the manipulation phase. Invalidation will be if price drops below the lowest point during the manipulation and closes BELOW. Key word is close.
Made quite a fair bit so far from this “easy” mode market. Really thankful for it. Almost recovered all that I lost previously. So yeah, a really good start I must say. So much as luck had a role in it, I like to believe that my relentless efforts has helped me tremendously.
Always question your thesis when playing with small caps, where is the current narrative? Do you think price will eventually recover? Is it just pure FUD & attention will eventually return? What is the catalyst? Any large influencers shilling it? What’s their history? Any PnD history?
Many many dynamic factors to consider that is too fluid. Many will get wrecked without a framework. (So did I in the beginning)..
Define your framework, stick with it and ride it out. If it works out, the returns can be really handsome. Extract out your capital and alil profits and rotate. Regardless of how bullish, you should always extract your capital. Capital protection is key. Ignore what others say about it. FOCUS ON PROTECTING YOUR DOWNSIDE!
Conclusion: Narratives, attention span and power of 3..
So this is a typical “liquidity grab” scenario as what traders like to call it. Basically means that many are shorting from this area with tight stop loss hence they get stopped out easily before the trade eventually moves into their predicted direction.
Painful but it is what it is. This is why it will always be easier to trade with spot compared to leverage. Precision is key when it comes to leverage. Esp on high leverage. Whereas, on spot things are more forgiving as price can retrace all it wants but if at the end of the day, the daily chart closes to your liking, you can always keep holding onto the trade.
The downside for this is limited gains compared to leverage. But don’t be fooled by influencers posting +200% for their trades, next thing you know they might just be putting in a dollar per trade to farm engagement lolol.
For many, (including myself) avoiding leverage and focusing on buying at major support levels and selling after each bounce would make sense. Pentoshi style to say the least.
Greed will eventually creep on you if not kept in check. Being objective is key. Have a plan and execute it. If ETH drops till $750, I’ll defo be buying some. Prolly selling on the bounce if it is decent and buy some lower again.
I think perhaps in mid-late 2023, AI narrative could possibly be the next bubble. All these are just speculations anyway. I can be very wrong. But I would love to capitalise on it if I’m right.
Look at APT & OP. Those that pump hard will be new shiny coins. Don’t be surprised how far it can go. Look at SOL or other metaverse coins. Crazy really.
I do think that AI narrative will have it’s time given how it is performing in current sentiments. Remember how AXS was outperforming? Before the likes of other metaverse coins catching up.
Anything with the metaverse tag on it all mooned in union. Genopets, Aurory, IMX and etc. Always be open to new ideas.
Remember how dumb metaverse sound before the narrative kicked in? I kinda feel the same way with AI now. Honestly, pretty dumb narrative imo. But I’m not gonna make the same mistake twice. This time I’ll be joining the hype.
There are many AI coins, e.g. Ocean, PHB, FET and etc. Keep these on your watchlist and deploy when the time is right. Buy the blood.
I’m gonna go with the degen approach. Either moon or doom. If it doom, I’ll just lose a small amount however if it moons, it will be crazy. So I’m willing to take the chance. The alt that I’ll be slowly adding into my portfolio is only at 1m mcap. A micro cap to put it simply. The chances of it rugging is really high. I don’t know if I’ll talk about it here. Let’s see..
Even tho I understand the “fundamentals” of the project and the potential hype behind this AI narrative. The chances of me winning, prolly close to 1-2%. So realistically, I’ll still be allocating a huge chunk to ETH when the time is right. Probabilistic thinking is crucial when it comes to investing.
The reason why I’m comfortable with allocating some to such a degen coin it’s because I know that even if this rugs, the majority of my allocation is into index (SP500 etc) funds. There’s no index fund in Crypto so buying into ETH is as good as that.
Always manage your risk first, before even thinking about risky investments. Focus on accumulating good assets and if you have spare change then sure throw some into degen investments.
Only time will tell if I’m right or not. Only a very small allocation..
When price reaches 18 again, I’ll be adding bigger than usual. No rush. Just buying the tail end of the range. Can afford to take a much more relax approach when it comes to tradfi ETF. Boring but defo a nice break from Crypto.
But a range is range until it’s broken. The way 2801 is accumulating is defo different from SPX hence it requires a very different approach.
For SPX, I don’t see any ranges forming, more of a lower high and lower low structure. So from this POV, buying major support “levels” seems like a more logical approach compared to 2801 where only 1 level matter. Break & it’s lights out.
You could just buy lightly into 2801 and heavier when 17-18 comes. By heavier I mean, 3-5x more than your usual DCA amount. That’ll be ideal.
Gonna be a boring 2023 imo, but it also mean that generational buying opportunities could be nearing. Always be on the lookout! ATB!
This next rally could be a “bear market rally” on DXY as the EMAs has crossed. Signalling a lost in trend. Swing fail 108. It’s time to go HARD imo.
Removing all the bearish bias and macros and focusing on the charts because my only goal in 2023 is to buy at the tail end of an accumulation range and I do think that this could POTENTIALLY be an accumulation range.
Could I have missed the bottom? Possibly. But I’m just following my system. I do think that the market is kinda overextended atm & will retrace eventually. BUT, I feel that as long as there is a possibility that this could be a macro accumulation range, I’m snapping on the opportunity. Because if that happens, the upside outweighs the downside imo.
Just my 2 cents on this, think that I’ll start allocating a good amount very very soon. AI, Meme & WOO sounds good for now. Let’s see how it goes.
Market rallying on the confirmation of 25 bps. The market doesn’t like uncertainty. As long as there’s any element of uncertainty, things will sell off.
But my framework has a history of being 3-4 months early. So we shall see. It’s indicating that the time to accumulate USD is now.
Market psych is truly fascinating. Just a few months ago, many were so bearish. Just a few green candles and all became bulls. Take advantage of situations like this. Market inefficiencies and volatility will always provide you plenty of opportunity if you’re patient.
I would prolly be kicking myself 6-12 months ago if I miss opportunities like this. But things change with knowledge. Dance until the party is over.
Now.. let DXY show who is king. A few months from now? Who knows.
All these are just spot trading. Nothing else. Less stressful for me. Allows me to free up more time for school.
Don’t fall into the FOMO trap anons. Buy in red and sell in green. Let’s be patient. 🤝
I’m seeing many bullish sentiments around CT. Often times, it’s best to take profit and remain in fiat during times of euphoria like this. Esp in a bear market rally.
If you have caught the recent local bottom, give yourself a pat and take that damn profit. Profits there might not be there tomorrow.
I don’t care if it’s just 10%, 20% or if it’s just $10. Take it & buy yourself a cup of coffee or whatever. Don’t give it back.
I’ve my reservations on why I don’t quite think that the lows are in. But I could be wrong. Just playing with probabilities here. PMI contracting, EMAs not compressing YET, Feds still have room to remove liquidity etc.
Hard for me to be completely bullish here imo. I’m just waiting for good buying opportunities which I think could come this year. Preserve good capital until it comes & snap on it.