SGD-USD

*I’m not an expert in forex & just sharing my thoughts here*

Heading into strong support

Resistance

I suspect that now could be a good time to start accumulating USD given that it is heading to support and SGD/USD pair is approaching resistance. There’s a lot of price inefficiency on the SGD/USD pair. So if this falls, it’ll fall hard imo.

Personally, I’m accumulating more USD and keeping it until the time to deploy is in. I do suspect that DXY could potentially bounce off the marked out region. If that happens, equities and crypto will start to bleed out again. Could be bear market PTSD, no idea.

But I do think that it’s a smart move to start accumulating USD since it’s cheaper to do so and eventually start scaling back into whatever that you wanna buy. VOO, Crypto or whatever. Since everything is in USD & you can get more USD now and when USD rallies = equities drop then you will be able to get assets at a cheaper price with “more” USD. If this happens, happy days. If not, it isn’t a bad idea to hold onto USD imo as I believe that DXY will eventually head back up again. Maybe not ATH but at least a decent rally.

Long winded but you prolly get the gist. Always take into account forex risk when investing in non SG assets such as VOO. Atb anons!

TA doesn’t work eh?

China market and 2801

I think these videos explains the situation at China better than myself. I dont claim to be an expert or anything especially when it comes to politics or stocks.

Brief summary

1. 70% of China’s wealth is tied up in real estate
2. The real estate industry holds approximately 1/3 of the entire China economy (Which is huge imo)
3. So if real estate collapses there, the effect will be huge no doubt.. “Evergrande”

Lots and lots of FUD going around for China currently and unfortunately financial transparency is lacking here. So the only thing that is transparent here are the charts..

Random scribbles

You really dont wanna see them losing the $18 level or it’s gonna take a long long time for it to recover given how the market structure has broken.

How you should invest in ETF is defo different from your shit-ass alt coins. This is where you can build unwavering conviction because you know that the probability of the China economy going to zero is pretty damn low.

It is more probable that it will go much higher than current levels 2-3 decades from now. So, patience really pays here.

If you are a “lazy” investor then ETFs play would be ideal for you. Tbh, I started out as “lazy investor” hence my stocks portfolio are really lazy and simple but effective. I know all the ETFs that I hold will only appreciate in the future. REITS, VOO and 2801 (more speculative)..

The reason why 2801 is down so much would be due to the huge real estate allocation relative to their economy and the downfall of many China tech stocks.

But this should not come as a surprise lolol, look at how much tech stocks have mooned, only a matter of time before they drop like grapes, nothing goes up in a straight line.

Not forgetting NIO too

The only country currently that is capable of competing with US.. Only time will tell if I am right on this conviction. Let’s review this post again sometime in the future. (Maybe a few decades later?)

Good read

Don’t fight the big money, always follow and ride the trend.

Completely agree with this, many crappy NFT projects did well during the NFT craze period. Followed by crappy ass metaverse projects (Alice) doing well during the metaverse szn.

Identify the trend and hop on potential projects under the same category. Hard to go wrong tbh with this approach.

Always take profits in FIAT and have an exit strategy.

One of the mistakes I’ve made, conviction can be a double edged sword. Always look at price action. It’s the most important indicator.

I’ll leave a link here so y’all can read it yourself. Good short thread tbh.

https://mirror.xyz/0xC93E43c5a02fc3801f03f40993B96b028D9a8BCa/BPQQy7L7RYkRPbB7YnM4ITfYp94hb1D-zXHyh7RDeso

VOO

Started to reduce my monthly DCA size on VOO given how much it has ran. I would like to keep some ammos available when 310 comes.

For those that are interested, Im using FSMONE so regardless of what happens I’ll always DCA on the 8th of every month. Depending the price closer to the date, I’ll adjust the size accordingly.

Will prolly update my VOO plan here instead of constantly spamming new post to talk about the same thing. Helps to keep things neat too.

Decreased my monthly DCA for VOO and increased 2801 slightly.

Leaving a huge chunk of ammos for VOO when bearish sentiments starts to resurface again. Until then, will only DCA in small amounts.

$2000 ETH

Those that bought ETH at 800-900ish, well done! I was one of the bearish ones that thought $750 was in sight. I still do think that ETH will eventually trade towards $750 eventually. But since I didn’t get my entry, I’ll look to play ALTS for a catch up trade.

Like I’ve said before, being adaptable is key. If this doesn’t work out then what? Have a plan B, find your best edge and learn to unleash it at the right time.

I find what works best to curb FOMO, is to enter half size first, and place another half size bid much lower. This prevents full on FOMO, so if things moons from there, you’re covered but if it dips alil, you’re covered too.

Sure your gains will be limited but at least you’ll be more consistent. Consistency is key. Now isn’t the time to fade any pumps. Sep 15, mark this date down.. ETH merge date.

That could be a catalyst to either a nuke or pump depending on the outcome. I’m leaning towards a nuke. Let’s see how it goes.

Hoping for a good pullback so that I can enter in full size for FTM & ROSE. Don’t think that my bids for PYR would be filled given that it’s already 20-30% up from my entry.

We still have 3-4 weeks to enjoy gains in an uptrend. Don’t waste it anons. Keep rotating and following narratives. Be flexible.

🎉

Sky’s clear now 🛬

Hedged short

Take note of stronger alts

I’ll be bidding for both if a pull back comes.

Count your blessings

Despite being down so much in Crypto and slightly negative in SP500 and 2801. My entire PF only took a beating of -10%. With recession being a real concern currently, many will be struggling to keep their jobs, nobody would be looking to buy all your altcoins at this point of time. I am grateful that this is unlikely to impact me that much as the healthcare industry is pretty stable and can weather through many varied environments. Recession or not, healthcare is here to stay.

I have been saving up ammos to pounce on good opportunities. So far, I have been semi-aggressively DCAing into SP500, still leaving some spare. When the right time comes, I will be even more aggressive with my DCA plan. If I am not wrong, this method falls under the “dynamic DCA”, where you put more when it dips and lesser when it moons. Keep repeating on good assets and you’ll be fine.

As long as recession remains a real possibility in the near future, the downtrend will continue. BTC has never been in a recessionary environment, so it is very possible for BTC to drop even lower from here. Then again, the lower it goes, the more bullish one should be. As long as greed remains, Crypto will never die. To put it simply, it is a sophisticated casino for the educated to prey on the uneducated ones.

The ones that I believe will survive this bear market are $SOL, $FTT, $BNB, $AURY, $PYR, $CRV (Checklist not exhaustive) and of course $BTC and $ETH. But it is important to be prioritize survival in this context. Go for battle tested products (ETH/BTC) and it is unlikely that you will fail.

Remember, the market does not owe you anything. Everything is a game of probabilities. In the face of uncertainty, go with the one that is most likely to survive. As long as you are investing, be it in tradfi or crypto, you are exposing yourself to risk. Then, you should question if this risk is worth taking?/ What is the current market sentiments?

Set some checklist questions for yourself before getting into any investment. This will definitely help you in the long run. If something does not fit into your checklist, don’t invest. If something in the checklist changes due to whatever reason, sell.

The time to buy ETH is not here yet imo, give me a good market structure and I will be going in. Thats all for today, ATB anons.

ETH to the rescue

Clean break through, I like this sort of set up. One of my fav.

Don’t say no alpha hor, 12/21 EMA crossing. Good chance, this will run alil.

Think PYR will have a good run in this mini bear rally. Orders ready at 3.45. Please fill it in!! Spot only for this. I love trading 1D charts because I’m slightly better at it and spot trading really reduces the level of stress significantly.

Cleaned my chart alil, really like the way this looks now. Will keep it this way.

That’s all the “alpha” that I have for now. Time to get back to work. Don’t really have the luxury and time to trade futures when on placement. Oh well. Week 1 has been inundating, really hoping that things will get better from here. Wish me luck.

Update: Aped in half size for $PYR at 3.63, looking to add again at 3.3 if it gets there. I WILL BE taking profits at 4.7 and perhaps 5 depending on the strength at the point of time. If we don’t get 3.3 then I’ll just exit completely at 4.7

I’ll still take it as a bear market rally until proven otherwise. Still holding on my long term bags so if it’s a true rally then I’m exposed too.

Completely out. Will re-enter on S/R flip.

Those that managed to catch this movement with me. Do take profits responsibly. Zoom out and you’ll know why.

TA still displays a bear rally. Don’t bag hold, do note that PYR may revisit 1.5 in the future given macro uncertainty.

Searching for potential gems in the Matic eco system as I think it’s the best R/R with people being risk on again. Look at LQDR during FTM szn. 5-10x. The same can happen here too.

Solana and FTX

Very interesting clip I must say. SBF thoroughly explains that end goal of FTT which is something that I like. I don’t think any other exchanges have tried integrating other currency or stocks on their platform, even Binance if I’m not mistaken. So, if FTT succeeds and manages to gain traction not only from Crypto enthusiast but regular tradfi folks too, imagine how wild it’ll be. The inflow of liquidity would be endless. (Ok, I’m exaggerating but this is defo bullish for FTT token as there are benefits for staking their tokens, gonna put a SS here so y’all can read through and digest)

So yeah, it’s hard not to be bullish on FTT. But I would not be accumulating at current levels. TA matters in Crypto, the market is very unforgiving to those that get in at wrong prices.

Moving onto Solana mobile phone, not sure how feasible it’ll be as the smartphone industry is so competitive with just a few big iconic brands competing against each other. Sure it’s a good way to attract normies into Crypto but it might not be able to gain traction. I mean logically, I would still choose iPhone over Solana phone anyday. But hey, who knows what may happen in the far future.

It's Q1 2023…

You're playing Aurory on your @solana Saga mobile 📱

Life is good ✨ pic.twitter.com/e0Yn7R4dcM

— Aurory (@AuroryProject) June 23, 2022

Still bullish on Aurory. LFG

Alright, I've been meaning to punt an $AURY thread as some of you know. Here it is! But before we talk about Aurory's $AURY token, we're first going to address P2E/GameFi and how this all ties back together to Aurory as being a good bet. 🧵👇 /1 pic.twitter.com/UDPUkulwO6

— Bardster (@Bardstocks) June 24, 2022

Enjoy this short thread anons!

I would accumulate SOL if I’m not invested in $AURY tbh. I don’t like to have too much exposure into one ecosystem. Much rather spread it out. Having said that, this is a degen approach because SOL is more likely to survive compared to AURY, but if SOL moon x10 in the far future, imagine how far AURY can go. This is an asymmetrical bet imo. High R/R. Let’s see how it goes.

Hope that you’ve enjoyed this short summary. ATB anons!

Tradfi cliff diving

Cliff diving in progress lolol.. Gonna be a mad ride down. But it’s alright, I’ll welcome it with open arms. Bear market is only temporary and things will inevitably be better.

Look like crap tbh, no signs of bottoming or accumulating.

-70% for Netflix lolol from almost 700 to 190 and Crypto seems to be risky?? Makes a lot of sense lolol

Another example

Doesn’t matter which market you trade, whales always manipulate to create max FUD before loading their bags. Not interested in Tradfi. Not worth the effort imo. Much prefer Crypto.

I don’t mind accumulating at depressed prices for a few years. The eventual path will be up for SP500. Have a long term plan and stick to it. Keep it simple kek.

Good readdd

https://theknower.substack.com/p/breaking-away-from-cyclicality?s=w

Same thing, I will extract out interesting points!

Whales manipulation exist everywhere be it Tradfi or Crypto. Only way to break out of this is through acquiring more knowledge.

Slaving for 50 years and dumping most of your $ into SP500 as your sole investment would not have been a bad idea tbh, just look at SP500’s chart and the direction it is going. You’ll understand what I’m talking about. Sure, working for 50 years might not be ideal for most, but that will be the life of many and prolly yours too, like it or not. That’s why it is important to like what you are doing!

And Yes, BTC narrative has always been to fight against inflation, having said that, it has not been behaving the way it should because Crypto as a whole is still a relatively young market. Give it time to mature, perhaps eventually it will fulfil what it is meant to do.

I do agree with these statements

TA only works to a certain extent in Crypto. Always analyse and assess possible narratives. If prices are being attractive and going close to your support levels, sometimes it’s wise to snap on that opportunity because you never know when it’ll bounce and how much it would.

Defi blue chips like CRV being valued below 9 figures mcap is honestly mind-blowing while other L1s being valued at 9 figures mcap with dying TVL.. lolol. SMH. Would never understand why.

But it is what it is. CRV is extremely undervalued in my eyes. Eventually double digits imo. Give it time.

Next article!

https://theknower.substack.com/p/the-decomposition-of-attention?s=w

Sometimes the best way to make money is to buy/DCA and forget about it. Easier said than done of course!

Sad but true

Months in Crypto is equivalent to idk how many years in Tradfi context lolol.

Bear market is a different ball game.

Truly this! If you want something, you gotta put in the effort. No excuses..

Created a sub-category for good reads! I’ll be posting up my thoughts together with interesting perspectives more in the future! Hopefully y’all can gain something outta this. Market has been going down since Nov lolol. This is the time where you should be reading up and learning as much as you can. Knowledge will always be your advantage, make good use of your curiosity!