SGD-USD

*I’m not an expert in forex & just sharing my thoughts here*

Heading into strong support

Resistance

I suspect that now could be a good time to start accumulating USD given that it is heading to support and SGD/USD pair is approaching resistance. There’s a lot of price inefficiency on the SGD/USD pair. So if this falls, it’ll fall hard imo.

Personally, I’m accumulating more USD and keeping it until the time to deploy is in. I do suspect that DXY could potentially bounce off the marked out region. If that happens, equities and crypto will start to bleed out again. Could be bear market PTSD, no idea.

But I do think that it’s a smart move to start accumulating USD since it’s cheaper to do so and eventually start scaling back into whatever that you wanna buy. VOO, Crypto or whatever. Since everything is in USD & you can get more USD now and when USD rallies = equities drop then you will be able to get assets at a cheaper price with “more” USD. If this happens, happy days. If not, it isn’t a bad idea to hold onto USD imo as I believe that DXY will eventually head back up again. Maybe not ATH but at least a decent rally.

Long winded but you prolly get the gist. Always take into account forex risk when investing in non SG assets such as VOO. Atb anons!

TA doesn’t work eh?

Possible bottom for SPX?

2465 would be dream area to bid imo, that is if we get it

The last time SPX touched the 200 EMA on the monthly chart was back in 2012. A decade ago. Crazy imo. The highlighted blue region is my value zone and good zone to bid imo.

But if SPX loses the box, I’ll be looking to bid 3257 then 2465 next.

If 2465 comes, this will be an absolute gift LOL. If it comes and you start to back off and not bid. NGMI lolol.

If the macro is really as bad as what it seems to be then I don’t see what SPX can’t tap 2465. If that happens, what makes you think BTC wouldn’t tag 10-13k? & what makes you think that ETH wouldn’t tag 400-500?

These are areas of interest for me and where I’ll be bidding with a good chunk of my portfolio. Just using TA to guide my entries on good assets.

By good assets, I mean assets that I know will increase in value overtime. Human psych, greed and market cycle never change. Always the same.

Hard to pick out which alt or which stock would be a nice one to bid to enjoy the ride up. Look at litecoin, perfect example lolol. Or XRP.. didn’t even moon when other alts were mooning. Dinosaur coins to say the least.

But one thing that I’m confident is that ETH/BTC will prolly go through another cycle. High probability. So I’m betting 70% in ETH and prolly 30% in PYR.

Stocks wise, 100% SPX LOL. Maybe alil reit and China index. Other than that, nothing else. I’m going for high probability wins and betting as much as I can on these.

Leaving a decent chunk left for those with lower probability but crazy returns if I’m right.

One prolly a couple hundred bucks on a small cap meme shit coin LOL. Excited to see how this will unfold. Either moon or doom.

That’s all for today. Atb anons.

Nikko AM REITs TA update

Looking fairly decent. Good reaction off 0.86.

I honestly would love to accumulate more of it but R/R wise. Better off with SP500. I mean who doesn’t like to receive nice quarterly dividends. Esp now that it’s cheap to accumulate the underlying asset.

But it is what it is. I think there’s a good chance that this should form the range for CFA.. between 0.8-1. Accumulate at the tail end if interested.

Imo, at this point of time, given that there are signs that (according to my system) the time to be slightly aggressive is now. So slowly adding tradfi stuff like SP500 and CFA don’t seem like a bad idea imo.

Despite the momentum still being to the downside, if you can stomach another downside of 20-30% possibly then accumulating now shouldn’t be an issue.

Be realistic, you’ll NEVER catch the bottom. But you can always plan and buy closer to the tail end of the range given if you have enough patience.

Patience is the name.

Now, this gives me a lot of conviction that 17-22 would be the new range for now. Give 17-18ish next and I’ll be a buyer.

Tap 1.8k soon?

Been an exciting month in Crypto. Narrative trading is truly fun lolol. Important for you to plan out your exits tho.

Much easier to play spot and chill when the current market sentiments are “bullish”..

That’s all I’ve for today. Good luck and happy new year anons.

20k BTC (Moon time?)

Could’ve been the fuel, who knows

I’ve caught most of the movement however not in the size that I would’ve liked. That’s BTC for you eh, once it moves, it rarely gives you the chance to enter. 25k BTC incoming?

It also screws up your mindset, making you FOMO at the top thinking that the bottom was in.

Eth to take out 1.8k next?

Really interesting to see how quickly sentiments changes in Crypto. This is why it’s important to have a framework to build your conviction.

https://typicalphysiokid.wordpress.com/2023/01/04/why-im-not-bullish-yet-2023/

Not yet imo.. I could be wrong. No 100%. But probabilities are still to the downside.

Take note

Not trying to be overly bearish at the lows. But I do suspect that this could be the start of a macro accumulation range from some alts.

0.1 support held for $WOO multiple times. This is where I would like to buy. Accumulate at the tail end of an accumulation zone. Maximise your risk adjusted returns.

Almost 3x my money on SOL eco. Time to take 50% out again soon. Reason why I am keeping half a bag it’s because I want exposure to MEME plays and I think that this can have a good run when the true bull returns.

I think 0.6 soon or I’ll slowly accumulate at lower levels.

Just trading the charts/sentiments on this meme play. Goal is to accumulate so much as possible.

Another shitcoin that I got in around 0.0038. Gib 7-8 and I’ll be completely out. Just riding on the AI narrative.

This AI narrative is dumb imo. No fundamentals. Zero. Nada. But still mooned almost 2-3x across the board.

Sound like a broken record, but there is no fundamentals be it in tradfi or crypto. The only way to be on the right side, is to visualise HOW people would view these “fundamentals”. How they view will affect how they react and these collective actions will bring about a chain reaction effect.

Meme coin, 0 IQ play imo. Eventually will moon. The only sector that has shown to moon over and over again in Crypto. Since doge time if I’m not wrong. So in the past 2-3 cycles, meme coins have always been part of it. Small sample size as Crypto is still relatively new but prolly enough to make an educated guess.

Most gains came from following the narrative in spot and chill. So far, I’ve done fairly well. So next step is to not screw up my profits and return it back. This is where TA comes in. Identify your invalidation and work your way from there.

Atb anons.

Human psych never change

How many were screaming for $1-2 $SOL? When it was at one of the key support levels?

Sold half (took out my capital) and reinvested it again. Goal is to accumulate more on this token. Managed to increase my stack by almost 50%. Happy with how I’ve been playing with smol size lolol

Truth to be told, never look down on smol sizes. If you have the curiosity and drive, you’ll still be able to seek out wonderful opportunities and compound on it. Managed to compound my trading size till 2k USD. Started with only $50. Truth to be told, most of it came from spot plays and not leverage plays.

Easy to be SLed if you’re into futures. Unless you’re shorting, I think a smarter play would be in spot instead. Just my 2 cents.

I wouldn’t be surprise to see this kick off tbh. With Andre back. Only a matter of time before people start paying attention here.

Where I’ll be interested in $WOO. Eventually imo. Would play it as how I have been playing recently. 2x & I’ll sell my initial and wait for better prices. Simple play.. just requires tremendous patience. Draft out a plan and follow! Make it your edge.

Why I’m not bullish yet (2023)

With interest rate still rising, naturally stocks will still continue to take a hit. Additionally with unemployment rate remaining relatively unchanged. FEDS still have room to extract liquidity. So still more room to the downside imo.

Growth slowing down too..

DXY currently at support

Where I suspect SPX will eventually land 2900-3200, possibly 2500??

Taking all these data into account, ask yourself. What do you extract from this? How do you interpret it? If you’re bullish, why so? If you’re bearish, why so?

Imo, even tho risk is still to the downside, I think looking for good zones to accumulate would be a better approach compared to looking for shorting opportunities.

I mean we’ve took a significant hit and R/R wise, doesn’t make sense to take big short swing trades. Barely any decent bear rallies imo.

Less stressful to look for potential accumulation zones.

Usually price inefficiencies like this will eventually be filled.

If this happens, $300ish ETH seem to be possible LOL. I think that there’s a good chance that we can see it. Never talk in absolutes. But I would say that the probabilities are to the downside to fill in the price inefficiencies all the way down till 300ish potentially.

Meme coin FTW!! HAHA throw in some shekels and forget about it

So before going full on bullish mode just because your favourite CT says so. Think again.. Be objective and come out with a structure. That’s all I have, atb anons!

SOL heating up..

Don’t understand why so many are bearish on SOL LOL.

Crazy how quickly things change in Crypto eh?

Thanks for the eco play SOL 🤝 will be taking profits when this 2x, let’s see if I get it

$BONK going wild on Sol’s eco too.

I think this move still has got some legs. Too many are shorting SOL.

Short squeeze incoming reeeeee

Alil higher pls??

There it is..

Took out my capital, leaving the rest to moon kek

2022 reflections & 2023 goals

Looking back this year, there were defo good (school) and bad things (crypto and stocks) that has took place this year. Gonna slowly run through it all.

1. Got wrecked by Crypto, did fairly decent in tradfi. Tried to apply the same DCA strategy on Crypto and it didn’t work well. Moral of the story: DCA prolly works better in stocks because you’ve more time to think and react. But it is also much slower and more boring. Harder to get wreck on an index fund tbh compared to shit coins lolol.

2. Didn’t manage my risk well in Crypto. Allocated too much to Ponzi scams. When really I should’ve looked at possible levels to accumulate ETH.

3. Too impulsive and let my emotions took over in crypto. I was not logical enough. Felt that I have improved as I am alil more knowledgeable but still loads of room for improvement.

4. Did well with SG stocks and SP500 so far, will be looking to accumlate more SP500 at lower prices come 2023

5. In terms of school, defo am glad that one of the hardest part (clinicals) is done and dusted. Focusing on the last run. Happy with how I maintained my grades so far too.

6. Relationship wise, would like to improve it with my close friends and loved ones. Been neglecting them alil because I was busy with school, reading and also trading.

2023 goals

– Be good at my craft as a physio, would like to specialise in MSK (Maintain my current GPA too)

– Build better relationship with loved ones

– Be more calm and logical when it comes to investing

– Be better at trading (Might do another challenge $20 to $200 perhaps)

– Accumulate prolly double digits worth of ETH and channel 80% of PF into SP500

Will look back to see if I have achieved any of it

Predictions for stocks/Crypto in 2023

– I believe that BTC will start its bottoming process and range between 9-13k (could be wrong)

– I believe that ETH will eventually trade between 300-600ish and range there.

– I think WOO will be one of top CEX maybe in late 2023

– Think SOL will make a comeback imo.. despite all the FUD. Will be looking closely at its ecosystem with good tokenomics.

– Think PYR has a good chance to reach 3 figures

Moving on to stocks

– Think SPX would reach 3200 eventually & I’ll be buyer there. Confluent with a few technicals analysis that I believe in.

– With China opening up, 2801 looks pretty decent, think it could range around 17-22ish

– REITS ETF (Nikko), think that it will continue to stay beaten down if interest rates continues to be high. Hard to be bullish here. Until I see a reclaim of $1. If not it does look like it’s going lower. Regardless I’ll be a buyer.

– STI ETF: This is one resilient tank LOL, honestly I’m surprised. Eventually I will divert my gains back in here and also into REITS. Will assess which is more attractive in the far future.

Will look back at this prolly June 2023 and Dec 2023 again. Happy new year anons!! 🎊🎉

Gamestop Saga

Another good series on Netflix, honestly highly recommended. Retail investors vs institutional investors. Imo, there wasn’t any clear winner that came out of this. Many hedge funds got screwed shorting it and lost prolly around 20billion in total.

Retail investors on the other hand, made millions with their small starting capital but fail to capitalize on their profits and ended up giving it all back. One infamous influencer (Roaring kitty) as yall probably know. Made 30-40m from a starting capital of 50k. ROI: 600x LOL. Mad shit.

This documentary has clearly reflected the bitterness of many normies with the financial system. Prolly one good take away is to NEVER underestimate the power of attention. This technically falls under the category of narrative trading.

When people think that a stock price can’t go up any further and starts shorting too early, thats when they get screwed. The main difference between retail and institutional investors is the knowledge disparity and insider information. But knowledge disparity also an edge for retail investors, because its how degen apes are born.

Truth to be told, you need degen apes that literally buys without second guessing. If you accumulate a huge amount of degen apes, that’s what you get. A game stop run. Unlike institutional investors where they have to go through numerous approval and fundamental analysis before investing a large amount, for retail investors, investing is just a click away.

Mental really LOL

I think this story further validates my thesis on taking a punt on small cap meme coins for fun. The more you understand how things work, the more you realize that fundamentals are BS. Hype and narrative is the only thing that moves prices imo. Which is why analysing price action and narrative is key.

It is defo tougher in this current market sentiments because narratives only last for 2-3 days? Remember FOAN? How that lasted for 1-2 months. You need to be extremely quick to react for you make a profit now. Additionally, the profits are a measly 5-7%, pathetic compared to the bull market imo. Which is why personally I feel that it is a waste of time to chase narrative currently. Might as well just chill, do something else, come back when the charts are cleaner and start buying aggressively.

I have a meme coin in mind, but I would keep this play to myself. Dont want anyone to get rekted lolol.

Show me a nice accumulation zone with compression of EMAs and I will be going in. Either moon or rug. Small punt, let’s see if I get the chart that I want.

Alt coins

Tag $1.5 and I might be dipping my toes in

I like how PYR is still building despite current market sentiments. Would like to get a bag when the right time comes. No need to rush.

Started to lightly degen DCA on a meme coin LOL. Gonna be a part of my “forget that it exist” portfolio. Either moon or doom. #Dogcoins4lyfe

Pure gambling on this. Only doing this because history has shown time and time again that dogs coins will always moon at the last phase of a bull market.

Not sure if it’ll happen again in the next bull cycle, but probability lies with it happening again.

Not gonna bother trying to catch the bottom for dog coins because when it moons, it’s almost impossible to get on board LOL. I rather get on board earlier than later.

Ye, exactly my point. Don’t be too greedy. Put your entire crypto net worth into ETH and multiply it by 10x. If it’s 10k, you would have reached a new net worth of 100k by absolutely doing nothing and just buying ETH.

So my take is 70-80% ETH and 20% for a coin with good hype and “fundamentals”. Once you start including alts into your portfolio, an element of uncertainty comes in hence you’ll assume more risk. But it is what is. Risk and reward are intimately correlated. Higher risk = higher reward. Simple as that.

Looking closely at this too

With FTX saga, could another CEX alt take over the realm and compete with Binance? This is the narrative that WOO is sitting on. Huge potential I must say.

0.05 level would be the perfect place to scoop up some, pls gib. 30x potential to the top.

Can’t deny that WOO is looking more attractive compared to PYR. Let’s see how it goes. Accumulating ETH still remains the priority for now.

Until then! Atb anons and early happy new year!