2801 (China ETF)

I suspect that it’ll prolly range here for perhaps half a decade?

When price reaches 18 again, I’ll be adding bigger than usual. No rush. Just buying the tail end of the range. Can afford to take a much more relax approach when it comes to tradfi ETF. Boring but defo a nice break from Crypto.

Which could potentially lead to lower prices in the future. Valid point imo.

But a range is range until it’s broken. The way 2801 is accumulating is defo different from SPX hence it requires a very different approach.

For SPX, I don’t see any ranges forming, more of a lower high and lower low structure. So from this POV, buying major support “levels” seems like a more logical approach compared to 2801 where only 1 level matter. Break & it’s lights out.

You could just buy lightly into 2801 and heavier when 17-18 comes. By heavier I mean, 3-5x more than your usual DCA amount. That’ll be ideal.

Gonna be a boring 2023 imo, but it also mean that generational buying opportunities could be nearing. Always be on the lookout! ATB!

BTC bottom in?

I think there’s a probability that this could be a nice accumulation range for BTC given how the lows have been protected time after time

Very nice reaction from DXY.

This next rally could be a “bear market rally” on DXY as the EMAs has crossed. Signalling a lost in trend. Swing fail 108. It’s time to go HARD imo.

Removing all the bearish bias and macros and focusing on the charts because my only goal in 2023 is to buy at the tail end of an accumulation range and I do think that this could POTENTIALLY be an accumulation range.

Looking very closely on this..

Reach the blue zone again, this time I’ll be buying in good amount again.

Could I have missed the bottom? Possibly. But I’m just following my system. I do think that the market is kinda overextended atm & will retrace eventually. BUT, I feel that as long as there is a possibility that this could be a macro accumulation range, I’m snapping on the opportunity. Because if that happens, the upside outweighs the downside imo.

Just my 2 cents on this, think that I’ll start allocating a good amount very very soon. AI, Meme & WOO sounds good for now. Let’s see how it goes.

Indeed, always thought that Crypto was a quick money scheme. I was wrong.

From XO stream

25bps (Market rally)

Market rallying on the confirmation of 25 bps. The market doesn’t like uncertainty. As long as there’s any element of uncertainty, things will sell off.

Would DXY bounce here? Remains to be seen. But I’ll be accumulating.

But my framework has a history of being 3-4 months early. So we shall see. It’s indicating that the time to accumulate USD is now.

Is this a true break out? Before a nice retest of the blue zone? No idea. But market does look like it wants to push higher.

Market psych is truly fascinating. Just a few months ago, many were so bearish. Just a few green candles and all became bulls. Take advantage of situations like this. Market inefficiencies and volatility will always provide you plenty of opportunity if you’re patient.

I would prolly be kicking myself 6-12 months ago if I miss opportunities like this. But things change with knowledge. Dance until the party is over.

Now.. let DXY show who is king. A few months from now? Who knows.

Give a decent rally till 103 then 108 pls? Then I’ll start allocating into my shitcoins again. Ideal situation. May or may not happen. But hey, we play with probabilities.

All these are just spot trading. Nothing else. Less stressful for me. Allows me to free up more time for school.

Don’t fall into the FOMO trap anons. Buy in red and sell in green. Let’s be patient. 🤝

Is it time to be bullish?

I’m seeing many bullish sentiments around CT. Often times, it’s best to take profit and remain in fiat during times of euphoria like this. Esp in a bear market rally.

https://typicalphysiokid.wordpress.com/2023/01/04/why-im-not-bullish-yet-2023/

Explained on why I’m not bullish yet.

If you have caught the recent local bottom, give yourself a pat and take that damn profit. Profits there might not be there tomorrow.

I don’t care if it’s just 10%, 20% or if it’s just $10. Take it & buy yourself a cup of coffee or whatever. Don’t give it back.

I’ve my reservations on why I don’t quite think that the lows are in. But I could be wrong. Just playing with probabilities here. PMI contracting, EMAs not compressing YET, Feds still have room to remove liquidity etc.

Hard for me to be completely bullish here imo. I’m just waiting for good buying opportunities which I think could come this year. Preserve good capital until it comes & snap on it.

Nothing has changed. Still think 3 figure ETH again. Gib 700ish and I’ll start accumulating for the next cycle.

SGD-USD

*I’m not an expert in forex & just sharing my thoughts here*

Heading into strong support

Resistance

I suspect that now could be a good time to start accumulating USD given that it is heading to support and SGD/USD pair is approaching resistance. There’s a lot of price inefficiency on the SGD/USD pair. So if this falls, it’ll fall hard imo.

Personally, I’m accumulating more USD and keeping it until the time to deploy is in. I do suspect that DXY could potentially bounce off the marked out region. If that happens, equities and crypto will start to bleed out again. Could be bear market PTSD, no idea.

But I do think that it’s a smart move to start accumulating USD since it’s cheaper to do so and eventually start scaling back into whatever that you wanna buy. VOO, Crypto or whatever. Since everything is in USD & you can get more USD now and when USD rallies = equities drop then you will be able to get assets at a cheaper price with “more” USD. If this happens, happy days. If not, it isn’t a bad idea to hold onto USD imo as I believe that DXY will eventually head back up again. Maybe not ATH but at least a decent rally.

Long winded but you prolly get the gist. Always take into account forex risk when investing in non SG assets such as VOO. Atb anons!

TA doesn’t work eh?

Possible bottom for SPX?

2465 would be dream area to bid imo, that is if we get it

The last time SPX touched the 200 EMA on the monthly chart was back in 2012. A decade ago. Crazy imo. The highlighted blue region is my value zone and good zone to bid imo.

But if SPX loses the box, I’ll be looking to bid 3257 then 2465 next.

If 2465 comes, this will be an absolute gift LOL. If it comes and you start to back off and not bid. NGMI lolol.

If the macro is really as bad as what it seems to be then I don’t see what SPX can’t tap 2465. If that happens, what makes you think BTC wouldn’t tag 10-13k? & what makes you think that ETH wouldn’t tag 400-500?

These are areas of interest for me and where I’ll be bidding with a good chunk of my portfolio. Just using TA to guide my entries on good assets.

By good assets, I mean assets that I know will increase in value overtime. Human psych, greed and market cycle never change. Always the same.

Hard to pick out which alt or which stock would be a nice one to bid to enjoy the ride up. Look at litecoin, perfect example lolol. Or XRP.. didn’t even moon when other alts were mooning. Dinosaur coins to say the least.

But one thing that I’m confident is that ETH/BTC will prolly go through another cycle. High probability. So I’m betting 70% in ETH and prolly 30% in PYR.

Stocks wise, 100% SPX LOL. Maybe alil reit and China index. Other than that, nothing else. I’m going for high probability wins and betting as much as I can on these.

Leaving a decent chunk left for those with lower probability but crazy returns if I’m right.

One prolly a couple hundred bucks on a small cap meme shit coin LOL. Excited to see how this will unfold. Either moon or doom.

That’s all for today. Atb anons.

Nikko AM REITs TA update

Looking fairly decent. Good reaction off 0.86.

I honestly would love to accumulate more of it but R/R wise. Better off with SP500. I mean who doesn’t like to receive nice quarterly dividends. Esp now that it’s cheap to accumulate the underlying asset.

But it is what it is. I think there’s a good chance that this should form the range for CFA.. between 0.8-1. Accumulate at the tail end if interested.

Imo, at this point of time, given that there are signs that (according to my system) the time to be slightly aggressive is now. So slowly adding tradfi stuff like SP500 and CFA don’t seem like a bad idea imo.

Despite the momentum still being to the downside, if you can stomach another downside of 20-30% possibly then accumulating now shouldn’t be an issue.

Be realistic, you’ll NEVER catch the bottom. But you can always plan and buy closer to the tail end of the range given if you have enough patience.

Patience is the name.

Now, this gives me a lot of conviction that 17-22 would be the new range for now. Give 17-18ish next and I’ll be a buyer.

Tap 1.8k soon?

Been an exciting month in Crypto. Narrative trading is truly fun lolol. Important for you to plan out your exits tho.

Much easier to play spot and chill when the current market sentiments are “bullish”..

That’s all I’ve for today. Good luck and happy new year anons.

20k BTC (Moon time?)

Could’ve been the fuel, who knows

I’ve caught most of the movement however not in the size that I would’ve liked. That’s BTC for you eh, once it moves, it rarely gives you the chance to enter. 25k BTC incoming?

It also screws up your mindset, making you FOMO at the top thinking that the bottom was in.

Eth to take out 1.8k next?

Really interesting to see how quickly sentiments changes in Crypto. This is why it’s important to have a framework to build your conviction.

https://typicalphysiokid.wordpress.com/2023/01/04/why-im-not-bullish-yet-2023/

Not yet imo.. I could be wrong. No 100%. But probabilities are still to the downside.

Take note

Not trying to be overly bearish at the lows. But I do suspect that this could be the start of a macro accumulation range from some alts.

0.1 support held for $WOO multiple times. This is where I would like to buy. Accumulate at the tail end of an accumulation zone. Maximise your risk adjusted returns.

Almost 3x my money on SOL eco. Time to take 50% out again soon. Reason why I am keeping half a bag it’s because I want exposure to MEME plays and I think that this can have a good run when the true bull returns.

I think 0.6 soon or I’ll slowly accumulate at lower levels.

Just trading the charts/sentiments on this meme play. Goal is to accumulate so much as possible.

Another shitcoin that I got in around 0.0038. Gib 7-8 and I’ll be completely out. Just riding on the AI narrative.

This AI narrative is dumb imo. No fundamentals. Zero. Nada. But still mooned almost 2-3x across the board.

Sound like a broken record, but there is no fundamentals be it in tradfi or crypto. The only way to be on the right side, is to visualise HOW people would view these “fundamentals”. How they view will affect how they react and these collective actions will bring about a chain reaction effect.

Meme coin, 0 IQ play imo. Eventually will moon. The only sector that has shown to moon over and over again in Crypto. Since doge time if I’m not wrong. So in the past 2-3 cycles, meme coins have always been part of it. Small sample size as Crypto is still relatively new but prolly enough to make an educated guess.

Most gains came from following the narrative in spot and chill. So far, I’ve done fairly well. So next step is to not screw up my profits and return it back. This is where TA comes in. Identify your invalidation and work your way from there.

Atb anons.

Human psych never change

How many were screaming for $1-2 $SOL? When it was at one of the key support levels?

Sold half (took out my capital) and reinvested it again. Goal is to accumulate more on this token. Managed to increase my stack by almost 50%. Happy with how I’ve been playing with smol size lolol

Truth to be told, never look down on smol sizes. If you have the curiosity and drive, you’ll still be able to seek out wonderful opportunities and compound on it. Managed to compound my trading size till 2k USD. Started with only $50. Truth to be told, most of it came from spot plays and not leverage plays.

Easy to be SLed if you’re into futures. Unless you’re shorting, I think a smarter play would be in spot instead. Just my 2 cents.

I wouldn’t be surprise to see this kick off tbh. With Andre back. Only a matter of time before people start paying attention here.

Where I’ll be interested in $WOO. Eventually imo. Would play it as how I have been playing recently. 2x & I’ll sell my initial and wait for better prices. Simple play.. just requires tremendous patience. Draft out a plan and follow! Make it your edge.

Why I’m not bullish yet (2023)

With interest rate still rising, naturally stocks will still continue to take a hit. Additionally with unemployment rate remaining relatively unchanged. FEDS still have room to extract liquidity. So still more room to the downside imo.

Growth slowing down too..

DXY currently at support

Where I suspect SPX will eventually land 2900-3200, possibly 2500??

Taking all these data into account, ask yourself. What do you extract from this? How do you interpret it? If you’re bullish, why so? If you’re bearish, why so?

Imo, even tho risk is still to the downside, I think looking for good zones to accumulate would be a better approach compared to looking for shorting opportunities.

I mean we’ve took a significant hit and R/R wise, doesn’t make sense to take big short swing trades. Barely any decent bear rallies imo.

Less stressful to look for potential accumulation zones.

Usually price inefficiencies like this will eventually be filled.

If this happens, $300ish ETH seem to be possible LOL. I think that there’s a good chance that we can see it. Never talk in absolutes. But I would say that the probabilities are to the downside to fill in the price inefficiencies all the way down till 300ish potentially.

Meme coin FTW!! HAHA throw in some shekels and forget about it

So before going full on bullish mode just because your favourite CT says so. Think again.. Be objective and come out with a structure. That’s all I have, atb anons!